Saturday was only the beginning of a multi-day severe weather outbreak across not only the state of Oklahoma but all of the Plains. Though no tornadoes were reported in the state of Oklahoma Saturday, we did have reports of tornadoes from these storms in Kansas and Nebraska. However, today is a different story. A confirmed tornado was reported in Edmond, OK just some time ago, and a violent tornado is being reported northeast of Oklahoma City at this time. This tornado threat is expected to ramp up for the rest of today and on Monday. Storms of the severe nature will threaten central and parts of eastern Oklahoma, as many of the severe storms that developed Saturday weakened and lost severe characteristics by the time they advanced out of western Oklahoma. We already have seen severe thunderstorms firing up in northwest and central Oklahoma, moving towards the east-northeast. Again, one of these storms has been tornadic. NOW is the time to prepare!
Again, the reason for this severe weather outbreak is a result of an eastward-moving trough that is interacting with warm air and abundant moisture surging northward from the Gulf of Mexico, providing instability in the atmosphere. We expect the severe weather for the next couple of days to again occur primarily during the late-afternoon and evening hours due to a capping inversion, the increase of temperature with height that inhibits thunderstorm development, in place during the morning hours. Once the capping inversion vanishes as the days progress, storms will begin to fire and will be quite dangerous. We will now step through the next few days one at a time to give you all the details, but first, here is a quick overview.
Sunday/Sunday Night
On Saturday, parts of southwest Oklahoma and the panhandle saw their first triple-digits of the year. For today, high temperatures have still been on the warm side, with extreme southwestern Oklahoma seeing another day of triple-digit heat as highs top out in the low-100s. In areas of Oklahoma that are currently not seeing thunderstorm development, skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy throughout the rest of the afternoon, but do not let this deceive you. Cloud formation will begin as storms begin to fire up later this evening.
We do expect a greater severe threat today than Saturday. All of Oklahoma may see some scattered, pop-up storms tonight, but the most likely location for severe storms will be in central and northeastern Oklahoma. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk for the aforementioned areas, with a slight risk encompassing all of central and eastern Oklahoma. The dry line will continue its slow track eastward across the state. Again, the timing of these storms will be in the late-afternoon and evening hours and will have the potential to last through the late-night hours. With Sunday’s storms comes an increased TORNADO threat, so we urge you to be extra aware. A TORNADO WATCH is in effect for central and eastern Oklahoma until 11:00 PM CDT. The graphic above shows the elevated tornado risk shaded in red. With the approaching cold front from the northwest, low temperatures Sunday night will dip down to the 50s in the northwest part of the state, while remaining in the 60s and 70s elsewhere. Of course, the passage of storms will cause a pretty dramatic drop in the temperatures.
THREATS:
Very large hail
Damaging winds
Tornadoes
Oklahoma Radar with Alerts
Provided by the Oklahoma Mesonet
Important Links
Oklahoma Watches, Warnings, Advisories
Looping Central Oklahoma Radar
Southern Plains Looping Radar
Latest Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlooks
National Weather Service Amarillo, TX
National Weather Service Norman, OK
National Weather Service Tulsa, OK
Monday/Monday Night
Monday presents the same story in terms of the severe weather threat. First of all, high temperatures will start to cool across the state, as we see the invasion of the 70s in the panhandle and far eastern Oklahoma. The rest of the state will see highs in the 80s, but southwest Oklahoma will still see highs soar as high as the mid-to-upper-90s: quite a temperature contrast. Skies across the state will be partly cloudy. Then, again, during the afternoon, the cloud cover will increase in central and eastern Oklahoma as the storms fire up.
Again, Monday may be a déjà vu scenario in terms of severe weather. The most likely location for severe thunderstorms is in central and northeastern Oklahoma, All threats are still possible, and the timing of the storms will be in the late afternoon through evening hours, lasting overnight.
THREATS:
Very large hail
Damaging winds
Tornadoes
Tuesday/Tuesday Night
Expect a chance for thunderstorms in central and eastern Oklahoma on Tuesday, with the thunderstorms in central Oklahoma mainly occurring in the early morning hours. In eastern Oklahoma, the chance for storms persists throughout the day. The Storm Prediction Center’s slight risk for Tuesday includes southeastern Oklahoma, which means that all residents in this region need to be prepared for strong to severe storms. The timing of severe storm development will be in the late afternoon to evening hours, and damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats, though we cannot rule out the possibility of a tornado. Please remain alert if you live in this region.
Due to the passage of the cold front, highs on Tuesday will be cooler across the state. We say "goodbye" to the 90s and "hello" to highs in the 70s in the panhandle and southeast and 80s elsewhere. These cooler highs will remain in place for a couple of days.
THREATS:
Large hail
Damaging winds
Isolated tornadoes
In light of the tornado outbreak in North Texas recently, we urge you to take this severe weather threat very seriously and be prepared for any changing weather conditions as they happen. We will update this blog as necessary to inform you of the latest details. Please know that, although we are unable to put out screencasts in our media department this summer, the National Weather Service office in Norman, OK are providing video briefings, which can be found on their YouTube page HERE. We also want to take this time to clear up any confusion you may have about the terms “slight risk,” “moderate risk,” and “high risk” that are used by the Storm Prediction Center. For more information on what a slight risk is, please click HERE. For more information on what moderate and high risks are, please click HERE. These graphics and information have been provided by the National Weather Service Office in Norman, OK and are available on their Facebook page.
Sources: NWS, SPC, HOOT, Mesonet
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