BEWARE: We are watching out for more severe weather this week as the “ingredients” all come together once again: warm, moist air surging northward from the Gulf of Mexico, an advancing trough and associated cold front from the west, and a surface low near the Oklahoma-Kansas border. Additionally, a dry line will be in place in western Oklahoma along the Oklahoma-Texas border and will move quite slowly eastward over the next few days, allowing violent thunderstorms to fire up during the afternoon and evening hours. This will, again, provide for a multi-day threat for the state of Oklahoma and surrounding Plains states that will last through at least Friday.
All modes of severe weather are possible with this week’s severe weather, including tornadoes. However, at this time we expect the tornado threat to be farther north, mainly in Kansas. Still, we are not ruling out the tornado threat completely! As these isolated supercells fire up in mid-to-late afternoon hours, they will pose a significant large hail threat, with tornadoes and damaging winds also possible. As the afternoon and evening progress, these supercell thunderstorms will come together and form lines as they start to bow out, posing primarily a damaging wind threat through the late-night and potentially overnight hours. Please also note that some of these storms may produce heavy rainfall and may track over the same areas, leading to a significant chance for flash flooding. Therefore, we urge you to be alert now, especially those residents involved in clean-up efforts from last week’s tornadoes.
Today/Tonight
By 4 pm this afternoon, we are expecting the severe threat to ramp up. As you can see from the graphic above, western Oklahoma will be under the gun for the worst of the severe weather as isolated storms fire up in southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas and advance towards the northeast. The western severe threat should end around 10 pm as the storms start to track more eastward. Threats are large hail up to tennis ball size, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall which could lead to flash flooding. If you live in central Oklahoma, you need to watch out for thunderstorms in the 8 pm to 1 am time frame. Some of the storms advancing eastward could still be severe, with large hail and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. However, even if these storms are not severe, you still need to be alert as frequent lightning and heavy rainfall (which do not determine whether a storm is severe or not) are still possible.
We’ll have mild lows tonight that will be in the mid-60s to low-70s across the entire state. Strong southerly winds will persist, sustained between 20 and 25 mph. Gusts will be as high as 35 mph.
THREATS:
Very large hail
Damaging wind gusts
A tornado possible
Frequent lightning
Heavy rainfall
Wednesday/Wednesday Night
Wednesday will pretty much be the same as Tuesday in terms of severe weather. To start out the day, skies will be mostly cloudy across the state, though the sun may peek out through the clouds, thus heating the surface and really fueling that severe threat. Daytime high temperatures will be the one noticeable change between Tuesday and Wednesday as Wednesday’s highs will be cooler across the core of the state. We are only expecting highs in the upper-70s to low-80s across western, central, and eastern Oklahoma. The one exception here is the panhandle, which will see highs in the upper-80s to low-90s once again.
Starting around 4 pm and this time lasting through the overnight hours, keep your eye on the sky as severe storms start to fire up in western Oklahoma. Remember that these supercell thunderstorms are isolated, so this can be a hit-or-miss situation for your area. Frequent lightning and heavy rainfall will be possible with any of these storms, but as we focus on the severe characteristics, baseball-size hail, wind gusts up to 70 mph, and perhaps a tornado or two are possible in some of these storms. Areas father to the east will deal with mainly a damaging wind and hail threat as the supercell thunderstorms come together, but all of central and western Oklahoma is highlighted in a severe threat, with a moderate risk being issued by the Storm Prediction Center in western Oklahoma, and a slight risk in central and even parts of eastern Oklahoma, so do not let your guard down. If you are in eastern Oklahoma, you may still be dealing with some severe thunderstorms early in the night, but they should slowly start to lose severe characteristics as the night progresses. Still, you can expect frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with some storms. Cooler lows in the mid-to-upper-50s will invade the panhandle on Wednesday night, but for the rest of the state, you can still expect mild lows in the upper-60s to low-70s.
THREATS:
Very Large hail
Damaging wind gusts
A tornado possible
Frequent lightning
Heavy rainfall
Thursday/Thursday Night
On Thursday the dry line finally starts to advance eastward a bit, so far western Oklahoma should be out of the severe threat. The threat for severe weather will be confined to central Oklahoma and still perhaps areas in western Oklahoma. For the morning and early afternoon hours, we will see partly to mostly cloudy skies. In eastern Oklahoma, especially the northeast, thunderstorms from Wednesday night may persist throughout the day. Highs will be significantly warmer in the west and still warmer than on Wednesday in central Oklahoma. Our warmest highs will be in the low-to-mid-90s in western Oklahoma, including the panhandle. In central and eastern Oklahoma, we will have highs in the low-to-upper-80s. In northeast Oklahoma, however, the presence of thunderstorms may keep the highs to much cooler levels, allowing them top out only in the mid-to-upper-70s.
Again, starting around 4 pm is when the storms on Thursday should fire up. The severe threat should end around midnight, though thunderstorms not of the severe nature could last longer. In eastern Oklahoma, you have a good chance of dealing with thunderstorms that fire up in the afternoon. The threats from these storms will not be any different from the past couple of days, with heavy rainfall and frequent lightning being the non-severe threats while very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a possible tornado are the severe threats. For Thursday night, lows will again be cool in the panhandle, dropping down to the 50s. However, the core of the state can still expect to see mild lows in the upper-60s to low-70s.
THREATS:
Very Large hail
Damaging wind gusts
A tornado possible
Frequent lightning
Heavy rainfall
Friday/Friday Night
Because this is still a few days out, we do not have all the details for Friday’s severe threat. However, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined an area on their Day 4 Convective Outlook (which would be Friday) that includes an area from western Oklahoma to north central and northeastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas. The southern edge of this threat zone goes right through Oklahoma City, but this area is subject to change as the days progress and we have more up-to-date information, so all of central Oklahoma should still be on the lookout for a continuing threat of severe weather on Friday. The timing of storms will again be in the mid-to-late afternoon hours, and hail, damaging winds, and possible a tornado will again be the threats, along with heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Please continue to watch the forecasts.
In light of the recent tornado outbreaks, we urge you to take this severe weather threat very seriously and be prepared for any changing weather conditions as they happen. We will update this blog as necessary to inform you of the latest details. Are you confused by the terms “slight risk,” “moderate risk,” and “high risk” that are used by the Storm Prediction Center? For more information on what a slight risk is, please click HERE. For more information on what moderate and high risks are, please click HERE. These graphics and information have been provided by the National Weather Service Office in Norman, OK and are available on their Facebook page.
MORE: Moore EF5 Tornado: Information and Resources
RESOURCES:
Storm Prediction Center
National Weather Service Amarillo, TX
National Weather Service Norman, OK
National Weather Service Tulsa, OK
Sources: NWS, SPC, HOOT, marioncountymessenger.com (photo)
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