Following Monday's Storms, More Possible Ahead

A large complex of strong to severe thunderstorms developed in southern Kansas yesterday evening and pushed southeastward into the state of Oklahoma, bringing tremendous amounts of rainfall to parts of northern and central Oklahoma.  For this afternoon, we may see more developing showers and thunderstorms ahead of a surface cold front pushing towards the southeast, though chances are not as great as yesterday.  Although the severe potential is lower overall, some storms may still turn severe with strong wind gusts to 60 mph and quarter-size hail.  After today, slight chances for showers and thunderstorms remain for at least the next seven days across various parts of the state, with hot and humid conditions across the entire state.  Heat indices may be well into the 100s as early as tomorrow afternoon.  Please remember your heat safety tips!

ALERT: Flash Flooding, Severe Weather Possible

It may seem as though we are returning to a spring-like pattern.  A warm front will lift north later this afternoon, with storms firing ahead, or north, of the warm front.  With daytime heating and a moist air mass, also with a limited capping inversion, instability in the atmosphere will be prominent, leading to development of supercell thunderstorms.  These supercells will bring the threats of hail, damaging winds, and, yes, even tornadoes.  After developing, they will push eastward and come together, leading to a significant flash flood threat.  We urge you to be alert this afternoon and evening.  Storms are already firing up across central Oklahoma.

Showers, Thunderstorms Bring Much-Needed Rainfall

Over the past week, showers and thunderstorms, some producing flooding rains, have impacted a great deal of the state.  Last Sunday, northeast Oklahoma was pounded with heavy rainfall, and on Friday, parts of western, central, and eastern Oklahoma picked up tremendous rainfall amounts.  Scattered thunderstorms throughout the week also brought more rain to parts of the state in the days in between.  For today, rain chances will diminish and be concentrated mostly in northwest Oklahoma.  On Sunday and Monday, the chance for rain becomes greater in northern Oklahoma and expands farther south across the state.  We have a forecast for the coming days as well as a look back on how much rainfall was picked up over the past week below.

RECAP: Upper-Level Low Brings Rain, Cool Temperatures

At the early part of the week, an upper-level low retrograded from the Northeast United States/Ohio Valley region towards the Central and Southwest United States.  The result was beneficial rainfall and significantly cooler temperatures for parts of the Southern Plains, including central and western Oklahoma.  While an upper low retrograding - that is, moving from east to west, which is opposite of the typical west-east movement of weather in North America - is not unheard of, it usually only happens a few times a year and moreover, typically not during summer.  Our normal summer pattern in the Southern Plains is a dominating dome of high pressure, leading to rain-free days and nights, high temperatures well into the 90s and 100s, and sometimes high humidity levels leading to heat indices in the upper-100s.  But while the upper-level low moved westward across the country this week, a typical summer pattern was far from the case in the Southern Plains.  On the contrary, an upper-level high "replaced" the upper-level low in the Northeast and Midwest United States, leading to a tremendous heat wave this week for those parts of the nation.

Slim Rain Chances Today, Warming Up

Following a couple of days with a large swath of rainfall across central and western Oklahoma and a couple more days with scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across the state, we still have slight chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.  However, chances are very slight - at no more than 20% - and will be confined primarily to southwest, south central, and southeast Oklahoma only.  The rest of the state will see mainly sunny skies.  A warming trend is also in store for this afternoon and the coming days, with high temperatures back in the 90s.  As an expanding dome of high pressure, responsible for bringing a tremendous heat wave to a great deal of the Eastern and Midwestern United States, creeps into Oklahoma, we will be dealing with humid conditions again today in central and eastern Oklahoma.  The humid conditions will result in high heat indices.  Please remember your heat safety and try to limit or avoid outdoor activity.

Scattered Showers, Storms Continue Today

An upper-level low that moved from the Ohio Valley to the central Plains on Sunday and Monday is now situated over New Mexico.  The low will move towards the south-southwest into Mexico by Thursday.  The result will be continued scattered showers and thunderstorms across parts of the state, mainly the central and west, today.  However, rain chances are not as high as yesterday.  By Friday, all of the state should remain relatively dry.  Come the weekend, we will see the return of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the state.  Temperatures will be on a steady rise through the weekend and finally be back to normal or near normal by Friday.

Rain Pushes West With Low

As the upper-level low pushes off to the west, so does the rain.  Central and eastern Oklahoma may see a chance for light rain or a lingering thunderstorm through this afternoon, but otherwise skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy in these regions.  Temperatures will also begin to warm up, especially if the sun is able to come out.  In western Oklahoma and the panhandle, a solid chance for rain continues through the afternoon and evening hours with skies remaining generally cloudy.

Another Day of Rain, Cool Temperatures

As the upper-level low continues its southwesterly track, rain showers and thunderstorms will continue to rotate in a counterclockwise direction around it.  Most of the rain from this system has fallen in central Oklahoma, but western Oklahoma has picked up some rain as well.  Oklahoma City's Will Rogers World Airport has picked up over 3 inches of rain so far and is still expected to see more.  Below we have a list of 48-hour rainfall totals across select Oklahoma cities.  Off and on rain will continue through Wednesday before the low finally pushes out of the area.  Below-average temperatures will also continue until this time, mainly for central and western Oklahoma.

Upper-Level Low Brings Rain, Cool Temperatures

For most Oklahomans, today does not feel like a typical mid-July day.  An usually strong, westward-moving upper-level low situated over far southwest Missouri is bringing beneficial rainfall and significantly cooler temperatures for central and western Oklahoma, as well as parts of Texas and Kansas.  So far in Oklahoma, the rain has been concentrated mainly in the center of the state, beginning early this morning.  Oklahoma City's Will Rogers World Airport has already picked up over 1.5 inches of rain and is expected to receive more today.  The heaviest of the rainfall will continue to push westward with the low, so drought-stricken areas in western Oklahoma should receive the much-needed rainfall beginning later this afternoon and evening.  Rainfall totals for Oklahoma from this system are expected to be highest in the central and southwest parts of the state.  Overall, most of the rain will fall in north central Texas, west of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex.  As a significant contrast, eastern Oklahoma has a more slim chance of seeing rainfall from this system; in fact, skies in the far east are mainly sunny.  Temperatures in the east are also on the warm side, currently in the mid-to-upper-80s.  Redeveloping showers and storms are still possible in the east over the coming days, so stay alert.

Change is Coming!

Tired of the heat?  Desperate for rain?  Have we got some news for you!  Beginning tomorrow, an unusually powerful upper-level low will retrograde - that is, move from east to west - towards the Southwest part of the nation from the Northeast.  We know that weather patterns tend to move from west to east in the Northern Hemisphere, so while one that moves from east to west is not unheard of, it is certainly not common, especially this time of year.  This low is expected to track right through the middle of the state, bringing central Oklahoma the most drastic changes.  High temperature drops of near 20 degrees and a healthy amount of rainfall can be expected starting Sunday and lasting through mid-week, especially for central and western Oklahoma.  But, of course, today we must deal with our last day of heat.

Heat Ongoing Through Saturday

Today is expected to be another hot day across Oklahoma, with high temperatures ranging anywhere between the mid-90s in the east to the mid-100s in the west.  A HEAT ADVISORY remains in effect until 7 PM CDT this evening for parts of eastern Oklahoma, including the cities of Tulsa and McAlester.  Heat indices will be as high as 105 degrees in the areas under the advisory.  Though the heat advisory has been scaled back from yesterday, heat indices will still be between 100 and 105 degrees across central Oklahoma, so we encourage you to continue to limit or avoid outdoor activities today.  In addition to the heat, an AIR QUALITY ALERT is in effect today for counties including or surrounding Oklahoma's largest cities.  This air quality alert is for high concentrations of ozone near the ground.  Please avoid being outdoors today if you suffer from respiratory problems.

Dangerous Heat Rages On

Though afternoon high temperatures will be slightly "cooler" for some of you, high humidity levels persist, leading to dangerous heat indices between 105 and 110 degrees.  A new HEAT ADVISORY has been issued for counties in central and eastern Oklahoma until 7 AM Saturday.  Therefore, we continue to urge you to be prepared for extreme heat and limit or avoid outdoor activities through the end of this week.  In addition to the heat, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are again a possibility this afternoon due to an unstable environment.  Please remain weather aware.

Widespread Triple Digits Wednesday

Expect another day of hot temperatures all across Oklahoma as the heat wave continues.  High temperatures will be in the mid-90s to low-100s, but high humidity levels, especially in central and eastern Oklahoma, will lead to heat indices reaching the 110-degree mark.  Currently, we have a HEAT ADVISORY in effect for counties in eastern and north central Oklahoma through 9 PM CDT this evening.  An EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING remains in effect for Tulsa county until 8 PM CDT this evening.  We strongly urge you to avoid outdoor activities today.  If you must be outside, remember your heat safety tips, which are listed on a graphic below, courtesy of the National Weather Service office in Norman, OK.

UPDATE: Another HOT Week

Through mid-week and even into parts of the late week and weekend for some of you, we will be dealing with extreme heat as part of another heat wave of the year across Oklahoma. Temperatures will be well into the 90s and 100s during this time, and high humidity levels, mainly in central and eastern Oklahoma, will lead to dangerous heat indices reaching the 105-degree mark. We strongly urge you to limit or avoid outdoor activities this week. If you have outdoor plans this week and cannot reschedule them, please prepare accordingly and remember your heat safety tips. They are listed in the graphic below, courtesy of the National Weather Service Office in Norman, OK, for your convenience.

Another HOT Week

Through mid-week and even into parts of the late week and weekend for some of you, we will be dealing with extreme heat as part of another heat wave of the year across Oklahoma. Temperatures will be well into the 90s and 100s during this time, and high humidity levels, mainly in central and eastern Oklahoma, will lead to dangerous heat indices reaching the 105-degree mark. We strongly urge you to limit or avoid outdoor activities this week. If you have outdoor plans this week and cannot reschedule them, please prepare accordingly and remember your heat safety tips. They are listed in the graphic below, courtesy of the National Weather Service Office in Norman, OK, for your convenience.

Seasonable, Dry Weekend

We hope all of you enjoyed your Fourth of July holiday. Following cooler temperatures last week, especially in the morning, we are expecting temperatures this weekend to be more seasonable across the state with relatively dry conditions. The summer pattern will continue on into next week, but temperatures will quickly be on the rise starting on Monday and stay warm all week. Despite slight chances for showers and thunderstorms around the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe, we will be dealing with another hot and dry week, especially in the west where highs in the 100s will return.

Pleasant Fourth of July

For the Fourth of July, we may see morning and early-afternoon isolated showers and thunderstorms in southwest Oklahoma. Otherwise, skies will be partly cloudy for the day and evening, making for a great day to spend outside. Morning lows will start in the upper-50s to low-60s, with highs reaching the low-90s across central and western Oklahoma and the upper-80s across eastern Oklahoma. By 9 PM, we will have temperatures in the upper-70s to low-80s across the state. Enjoy your holiday!