Due to final examinations, we have not been able to update the blog recently, and we apologize for that. We hope all of you who are taking exams this week are doing well! We must, however, make you aware of the return of severe weather, which will last from this afternoon through tomorrow night for parts of Oklahoma. The threats posed will be primarily damaging winds and hail, but we cannot rule out the possibility of a tornado. Therefore, please keep an eye on the sky for the next couple of days and have a plan should severe weather strike your area.
This Afternoon
Rain showers and thunderstorms are already prominent in northeastern Oklahoma and will bring wet conditions to the region all day. We will see the chance for thunderstorm development in western Oklahoma later in the day. After firing up in western Oklahoma, these storms will push eastward across the state, affecting central Oklahoma and eventually eastern Oklahoma. The storms are likely to still be severe in nature while reaching central Oklahoma tonight but will weaken before reaching eastern Oklahoma, thus losing severe characteristics. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined the slight risk for severe thunderstorms for western and central Oklahoma only. Still, eastern Oklahoma needs to be on the lookout for some thunderstorms tonight, which are likely to produce frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.
THREATS:
Large hail
Damaging winds up to 75 mph
Chance of a tornado
Warm, moist air interacting with an upper-level low over the Rockies provides the perfect scenario for these severe storms. Additionally, a dryline will form and move eastward. High temperatures this afternoon will reach more spring-like levels (finally), with the 80s all across the state. Of course, strong southerly winds will prevail to fuel the warm highs and bring in the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Sustained speeds will be between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph.
Tonight
As mentioned previously, any storms firing up in the western part of the state will push eastward, affecting central and eastern Oklahoma tonight. The storms will still be severe in central Oklahoma but should weaken by the time they reach eastern Oklahoma later in the night. Skies will remain mostly cloudy after any storms pass. Lows will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s across the state. A cold front will begin to push across the state, causing a shift in wind direction for the panhandle and northwest. Winds will blow from the south early, shifting to the west-southwest to the north. Winds elsewhere will remain southerly throughout the night. Sustained speeds will vary between 10 and 20 mph, with higher gusts possible.
THREATS:
Large hail
Damaging winds up to 75 mph
Chance of a tornado
Thursday
For eastern Oklahoma, expect morning to early-afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The threat for severe weather, however, shifts to central and south central Oklahoma. If you happen to be travelling home to Texas, the Storm Prediction Center’s slight risk for severe thunderstorm development stretches as far south as central Texas, so please watch your travel plans. Additionally, a slight risk for severe thunderstorms stretches across central Illinois and northern and central Indiana for Thursday. Again, any thunderstorm development will occur in the afternoon as the cold front and dryline push eastward. Thunderstorms may develop as far back as western Oklahoma, but they will mainly be severe in central Oklahoma only.
THREATS:
Large hail
Damaging winds
Heavy rain
Chance of a tornado
Due to the cold front (which, do not worry, is much weaker than we have seen in the past), highs will only reach the upper-60s to low-70s in the panhandle. We will also have a cool “zone” in eastern Oklahoma with highs reaching the low-to-mid-70s due to thunderstorms. For central and western Oklahoma, you can expect another warm day in the 80s.
Thursday Night
As is the case with Wednesday night, thunderstorms developing in the west will push eastward and affect central and eastern Oklahoma overnight, with the threat for severe weather remaining in the earlier hours of the night for central Oklahoma. Lows will drop down to the 40s for the panhandle, low-to-mid-50s for the northwest, and mid-50s to mid-60s elsewhere.
THREATS:
Large hail
Damaging winds
Heavy rain
Chance of a tornado
SPC Convective Outlooks
Sources: NWS, SPC, HOOT, Mesonet
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