ALERT: More Severe Weather Firing Up Today

ATTENTION: A TORNADO WATCH is in effect for a large portion of central and eastern Oklahoma until 10 PM CDT. Supercell thunderstorms are currently firing up around the Oklahoma City metro area, as today is the third day of another multi-day severe weather outbreak across Oklahoma and the Plains. We are watching out for more severe weather today, primarily in central and eastern Oklahoma as the dry line pushes eastward. Yesterday, the tornado threat was kept to a minimum across Oklahoma. According to the National Weather Service Storm Report page, only one tornado was reported in the state, which touched down about 11 miles south-southeast of Sayre, OK in the western part of the state. On the contrary, we had numerous reports of strong wind gusts, some wind damage, and hail from severe thunderstorms that rolled through the state yesterday evening through the overnight hours.

For today, we are expecting more severe weather, with all modes still possible. We expect isolated supercells to fire up around mid-afternoon in central Oklahoma then push eastward. When these storms fire up and gain enough energy, they will pose a significant large hail threat and tornado threat, with damaging winds also possible. As the afternoon and evening progress, these supercell thunderstorms will come together and form lines as they start to bow out, posing primarily a damaging wind threat through the late-night and overnight hours. Please also note that some of these storms may produce heavy rainfall and may track over the same areas, leading to a significant chance for flash flooding. Northeastern Oklahoma and parts of central Oklahoma are currently under a FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday afternoon. Therefore, we urge you to be alert now, especially those residents involved in clean-up efforts from last week’s tornadoes.

Oklahoma City (TLX) Radar

Tulsa (INX) Radar

Today/Tonight

Skies are, again, mainly cloudy across the core of the state, with supercell storms firing up in central Oklahoma. However, more importantly, we have a line and clusters of severe thunderstorms in northern Oklahoma and eastern Oklahoma. We urge you to be aware, as the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a moderate risk for central and northeastern Oklahoma, with a more significant risk for tornadoes and hail in the highlighted moderate risk area. If storms can form along the outflow boundary from thunderstorms occurring this morning and early afternoon, then the tornado potential will increase. Note that a slight risk exists for the entire central and eastern portions of the state today.

For yet another day, the panhandle is enjoying sunshine and warm temperatures. Western Oklahoma is also seeing a break in the clouds from yesterday’s thunderstorms. Highs today will therefore be warmest in this region, reaching the upper-80s to mid-90s. Farther east, where the clouds and thunderstorms are, we will have highs cooler than those in the west. Central Oklahoma will have highs in the low-to-mid-80s. Eastern Oklahoma will have highs in the mid-70s to low-80s. We will continue to have strong southerly winds, sustained between 20 and 25 mph, gusting as high as 40 mph.

For this afternoon, supercell thunderstorm development will occur as early as 2 pm across central Oklahoma; the best time frame for storm initiation is 2 pm to 4 pm, as you can see from the graphic above. Once these storms fire up, they will push towards the east and northeast. Central Oklahoma should be on the lookout for severe storms from 2 pm this afternoon through about 7 pm tonight. South central and southeastern Oklahoma should expect to see severe thunderstorms between the hours of 5 pm and 10 pm. Eastern Oklahoma in general has the best potential of seeing severe weather from about 8 pm this evening through 1 am. Please note that these times may change and, again, these supercells are isolated when they fire up. Main threats at first will be tennis ball size hail, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, heavy rainfall, and possibly tornadoes. Later tonight, we will be dealing with primarily a damaging wind threat as the thunderstorms form lines and bow out.

THREATS:
Tennis ball size hail
Damaging wind gusts to 70 mph
Tornadoes possible
Heavy rainfall

Friday/Friday Night

On Friday, central/north-central Oklahoma is in the highlighted zone for the greatest threat for severe thunderstorms. However, severe weather is possible from western central Oklahoma to eastern Oklahoma; the Storm Prediction Center currently has a slight risk for these regions. As storms up in the afternoon hours, we are looking at threats to be very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. However, Friday’s storms pose more of a heavy rain threat, which will lead to flash flooding. We may very well see 2 inches of rain or more in parts of north central Oklahoma and in the east, so you need to be aware. Remember that a flash flood watch has been issued for northeastern and parts of central Oklahoma through Saturday afternoon, and this watch may very well be extended to include additional parts of the state.

Before storms fire up on Friday, skies should be partly cloudy across the state. Highs will soar across southwestern Oklahoma, reaching the low-100s! Across the rest of western Oklahoma and the panhandle you can expect highs in the upper-80s to mid-90s. In central Oklahoma, highs will reach the mid-to-upper-80s. In the east, highs will reach the low-to-mid-80s. Friday night lows will be in the upper-60s to low-70s across much of the state. However, much cooler air will be invading the northwest, so lows in the panhandle and far northwest will drop down as cool as the low-to-mid-50s.

THREATS:
Very large hail
Damaging winds
Tornadoes possible
Heavy rainfall

Saturday/Saturday Night
Friday’s storms are expected to last through the overnight hours, so central Oklahoma but especially eastern Oklahoma will see additional showers and thunderstorms through the morning. By the afternoon, the storms should finally come to an end except for far southeastern Oklahoma, which could see additional thunderstorms fire up during the afternoon. Skies will start to clear in central Oklahoma but they will remain mostly cloudy in the east. Highs will be much cooler across the state. Southwest Oklahoma’s triple-digit heat on Friday will become a day with highs in the upper-80s on Saturday. The rest of the state will see highs in the low-to-mid-80s.

On Saturday night, far southeastern Oklahoma will see thunderstorms while the rest of the state remains dry and has mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Note that low temperatures will be significantly cooler; due to cloud cover for the past few nights, we have been used to mild lows in the 60s and 70s. Well, this will change. Expect the warmest lows to be in the 60s in far southeastern Oklahoma where the rain is while the rest of the state has lows in the low-to-upper-50s. Some 40s may even invade the panhandle!

Resources
Storm Prediction Center
National Weather Service Amarillo, TX
National Weather Service Norman, OK
National Weather Service Tulsa, OK
MORE: Moore EF5 Tornado: Information and Resources

Are you confused by the terms “slight risk,” “moderate risk,” and “high risk” that are used by the Storm Prediction Center? For more information on what a slight risk is, please click HERE. For more information on what moderate and high risks are, please click HERE. These graphics and information have been provided by the National Weather Service Office in Norman, OK and are available on their Facebook page.

Sources: NWS, SPC, HOOT, Brooks Martner (photo)