The environment was more stable over Oklahoma yesterday than we were anticipating, thus leading to limited thunderstorm development. We had some strong to severe storms in far northwest Oklahoma and the panhandle in the evening, but those quickly moved towards the northeast into Kansas. The rest of the state saw no action. This does not mean the threat is over! Today we are dealing with an environment that is much more unstable and supportive of dangerous supercell thunderstorms, enhanced by daytime heating and strong upper-level winds. We will also have a trough and associated cold front interact with warm, moist air surging northward from the Gulf of Mexico and a surface low move right over the Oklahoma panhandle. Additionally, a dry line will be in place in the Texas panhandle tonight and will move quite slowly eastward over the next few days, allowing violent thunderstorms to fire up ahead of it during the afternoon and evening hours not only today but for the next few days, thus providing for a multi-day threat for the state of Oklahoma and surrounding Plains states that will last through at least Friday.
All modes of severe weather are possible with this week’s severe weather, including tornadoes. We are looking at a good chance for tornadoes in Oklahoma today, mainly in the west, some of which could be violent. For this reason, a TORNADO WATCH is in effect until 10 PM CDT for western Oklahoma. Another TORNADO WATCH is in effect until 11 PM CDT for central Oklahoma. As these isolated supercells fire up in mid-to-late afternoon hours, they will pose a significant large hail threat and tornado threat, with damaging winds also possible. As the afternoon and evening progress, these supercell thunderstorms will come together and form lines as they start to bow out, posing primarily a damaging wind threat through the late-night and potentially overnight hours. Please also note that some of these storms may produce heavy rainfall and may track over the same areas, leading to a significant chance for flash flooding. Therefore, we urge you to be alert now, especially those residents involved in clean-up efforts from last week’s tornadoes.
Today/Tonight
We are dealing with mainly cloudy skies so far today and will be through the rest of the day. The sun may peek through the clouds at times, though, which would enhance surface heating and make the severe threat even more dangerous. We will continue to have high temperatures across the state today that are near-average or slightly below average, except for the panhandle, which is still enjoying that plentiful sunshine. While highs in the panhandle are expected to reach the upper-80s to low-90s today, highs across the rest of the state will top out only in the upper-70s to mid-80s. Strong southerly winds will persist, allowing that Gulf of Mexico moisture to fuel thunderstorm development. Sustained speeds will be anywhere between 20 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. The highest gusts will occur primarily in central and western Oklahoma.
Severe weather could begin to fire up at any time in southwestern Oklahoma and begin affecting western Oklahoma as early as 2 pm. However, after 3 pm this afternoon is when we are expected to see the most action. Remember that supercells are isolated, so even though this could be a hit-or-miss situation for your area, you need to be alert at all times. As you can see from the graphic above, the area of greatest confidence for tornadoes is in western Oklahoma, primarily the northwest, although all of western Oklahoma should still be on the lookout for the tornado potential. Even central Oklahoma should stay weather aware as tornadoes can form at any time from these dangerous supercell thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a MODERATE risk for all of central and western Oklahoma. In addition to tornadoes, hail to baseball size, damaging wind gusts at up to 75 mph, and heavy rainfall can be expected from these storms. Remember that heavy rainfall can lead to flash flooding, which is also extremely dangerous. We are expecting to see these thunderstorms continue through the overnight hours. As the evening progresses, these supercells will start to come together to form lines as they bow out, which makes the primary threat a damaging wind threat, though we cannot rule out large hail or tornadoes at any time. A SLIGHT risk is in effect for eastern Oklahoma, so the storms may still be severe in nature as they push eastward. Again, the primary threat will be damaging winds, but do not rule out hail or tornadoes.
THREATS:
Baseball size hail
Damaging wind gusts to 75 mph
Tornadoes
Heavy rainfall
Thursday/Thursday Night
Lingering showers and thunderstorms may continue across the state in the morning and they may be severe with hail and damaging winds, so watch out. Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy across the core of the state while the panhandle sees plentiful sunshine. Highs will warm considerably in western Oklahoma, topping out in the upper-80s to mid-90s. Central and eastern Oklahoma will see another day with highs in the low-to-mid-80s.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT risk encompassing a great deal of the state for Thursday. Afternoon supercell development is once again a strong likelihood as the atmosphere remains unstable. The dry line will start to push eastward across the state, meaning that western Oklahoma should be in the clear for afternoon thunderstorm development. However, central and eastern Oklahoma need to be on the lookout for isolated severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Though the tornado threat is not as great, we cannot rule tornadoes out. Primary severe threats will be hail to tennis ball size and damaging wind gusts up to 75 mph, while the non-severe threats of heavy rainfall and frequent lightning also need to be monitored. These storms will start firing in the mid-afternoon around 4 pm and last overnight, though the severe threat should diminish more by midnight. Thursday night lows will be in the 50s in the panhandle while remaining mild elsewhere: the upper-60s to low-70s.
THREATS:
Tennis ball size hail
Damaging wind gusts to 65 mph
A tornado possible
Frequent lightning
Heavy rainfall
Friday/Friday Night
Before the storms fire up, Friday will bring mostly sunny skies to western Oklahoma, partly cloudy skies to central Oklahoma, and mostly cloudy skies to eastern Oklahoma. Highs will start to warm up father towards the east. Expect highs in the mid-to-upper-80s in central and eastern Oklahoma while warm highs in the 90s persist in western Oklahoma. Do not be surprised to see the return of the triple-digits in far southwestern Oklahoma on Friday!
THREATS:
Very large hail
Damaging winds
Tornadoes
Heavy rainfall
In light of the recent tornado outbreaks, we urge you to take this severe weather threat very seriously and be prepared for any changing weather conditions as they happen. We will update this blog as necessary to inform you of the latest details. Are you confused by the terms “slight risk,” “moderate risk,” and “high risk” that are used by the Storm Prediction Center? For more information on what a slight risk is, please click HERE. For more information on what moderate and high risks are, please click HERE. These graphics and information have been provided by the National Weather Service Office in Norman, OK and are available on their Facebook page.
MORE: Moore EF5 Tornado: Information and Resources
RESOURCES:
Storm Prediction Center
National Weather Service Amarillo, TX
National Weather Service Norman, OK
National Weather Service Tulsa, OK
Sources: NWS, SPC, HOOT, Wikipedia (photo)
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