We all know how last week went. Sunny skies with spring-like temperatures dominated Monday and Tuesday, but by Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon, a powerful cold front swept across the state, bringing not only sub-freezing temperatures in most places but also a large swath of freezing rain and wintry precipitation to the state. Unfortunately, we have the same pattern set-up for this week as yet another trough, allowing cold, arctic air to surge southward, forms in the west and progresses east, interacting with the warm, moist air surging northward from the Gulf of Mexico. This persistent pattern will bring us another chance for severe weather, provided there is no capping inversion, which is an increase in temperature with height, thus inhibiting thunderstorm development. The severe weather threat lasts through Wednesday. Then, we have more chances for wintry weather in the northwest and central Oklahoma Wednesday night into Thursday. So we regret to inform you of this, but spring is still being stubborn and will not manage to hold on for much longer than a week at a time.
Today and Tonight
For today, a weak cold front is advancing across the state, bringing cooler temperatures to all of the state, except the southeast. Rain and thunderstorm chances today are minimal, and there is no severe threat in store for today. Across the state, you can just expect cloudy skies, with patchy drizzle occurring off and on throughout the day. We’ll have highs today in the 40s and low-50s in northern Oklahoma today. A thin band of 50s and 60s will stretch across central Oklahoma. Highs in southeastern Oklahoma will still reach the 70s and low-80s. Winds will blow between 10 and 15 mph. We may have gusts up to 20 mph. The direction will be southeasterly in the southeast and northeasterly elsewhere.
For tonight, expect a slight chance for thunderstorms all across the state; however, again, we are not expecting any of the storms that develop to be severe. We’ll have lows in the 60s in the southeast but lows in the mid-to-upper-30s in the northwest as a temperature gradient remains in place stretching from northeast to southwest Oklahoma.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night
Wednesday brings the ramp-up of thunderstorm development and possible severe weather. Temperatures in most cases will actually be warmer on Wednesday than they are on Tuesday. During the day, expect cloudy skies. A chance of thunderstorms exists all across the state, but in southwest, central/north-central, and northeastern Oklahoma, these storms have a greater chance of being severe, as the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a MODERATE RISK for this area. This looks to be a primary large hail threat at this time, but we cannot rule out the chance of a tornado. A SLIGHT RISK surrounds the moderate risk, encompassing most of the rest of the state except the panhandle and southeast. We expect severe thunderstorms to fire up during the afternoon hours, but the greatest chance for thunderstorms will be Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. For Wednesday’s highs, you can expect chilly 50s and possibly only 40s to invade the northwest. This signals to approach of the next cold front. However, even now, computer models are in somewhat disagreement about the exact timing of the cold front. Likely, these highs on Wednesday for the northwest will occur during the morning or early afternoon hours, with falling temperatures for the remainder of the day. For the rest of the state, we can expect temperatures to rise to the 70s and low-80s ahead of the cold front.
For Wednesday night, thunderstorm development remains likely in central and eastern Oklahoma, with storms strengthening. Therefore, the severe threat worsens, with large hail and damaging winds providing danger. Tornadoes are still not out of the picture. In western Oklahoma, you get the chance to greet winter (again) as we have a slight chance for a wintry mix of precipitation. In the panhandle, freezing rain and drizzle will be the primary form of precipitation we see, which can cause icing problems. Lows will dip down into the 20s the panhandle, 30s across the core of the state, and 40s and 50s further towards the southeast.
Thursday and Friday
At this time, we expect the cold front to reach central Oklahoma by Thursday mid-to-late-morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely in central Oklahoma up until this time. The front should finish advancing across the state by Thursday evening, so in the east, showers and thunderstorms will continue until this time. In southeast Oklahoma, severe weather is possible, as the slight risk issued by the Storm Prediction Center extends just into this area. We expect highs in areas ahead of the cold front to reach the 50s before dropping for the remainder of the day into the 30s and 40s. In the northwest and panhandle, the cold front will have already passed through, so you will not see highs warmer than the upper-30s to low-40s on Thursday, with very windy conditions. Winds behind the cold front will blow from the north-northwest at 25 to 30 mph, with gusts up to 40 mph.
For Friday, skies will have cleared across all of Oklahoma, but high temperatures will remain on the chilly side, with only the mid-to-upper-50s dominating. However, by the weekend, a 10-degree temperature jump should be in store to bring us the return of spring-like weather.
CLICK HERE to see the latest convective outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center.
Sources: NWS, SPC, HOOT
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