Déjà Vu Weather This Week

UPDATED 4/15/13 at 2:00 PM CDT

We all know how last week went. Sunny skies with spring-like temperatures dominated Monday and Tuesday, but by Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon, a powerful cold front swept across the state, bringing not only sub-freezing temperatures in most places but also a large swath of freezing rain and wintry precipitation to the state. Unfortunately, we have the same pattern set-up for this week as yet another trough, allowing cold, arctic air to surge southward, forms in the west and progresses east, interacting with the warm, moist air surging northward from the Gulf of Mexico. This persistent pattern will bring us another chance for severe weather, provided there is no capping inversion, which is an increase in temperature with height, thus inhibiting thunderstorm development. The severe weather threat lasts through Wednesday. Then, we have more chances for wintry weather in the northwest and central Oklahoma Wednesday night into Thursday. So we regret to inform you of this, but spring is still being stubborn and will not manage to hold on for much longer than a week at a time.

Monday and Tuesday
Well, let us start off the week with Monday. Contrary to last week, slightly cooler weather with wet conditions will start out the week for us. There is a chance for thunderstorms in eastern Oklahoma throughout the day on Monday, with the greatest chances in northeast Oklahoma. Please note that thunderstorms which develop have the possibility of being severe; the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a slight risk for severe thunderstorms across eastern Oklahoma, so be prepared for any changing weather conditions. Threats will be large hail and damaging winds. Elsewhere, you can expect partly to mostly cloudy skies in central Oklahoma and mostly sunny skies in western Oklahoma. Temperatures will provide a contrast for north-south, as highs will only top out in the 50s in northern Oklahoma. Further south, we will have highs in the 60s and 70s, with some 80s in southeastern Oklahoma. In most of Oklahoma, winds will blow from the north, between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. However, in southeastern Oklahoma, winds will blow from the south at 5 to 15 mph, allowing the highs to get a little warmer.

For Monday night, central and eastern Oklahoma will see slight chances for thunderstorms, which may be severe in eastern Oklahoma. Threats will be large hail and damaging winds. Otherwise, skies will remain mostly cloudy. We’ll have lows in the 40s across most of the western part of the state, with 50s and even the 60s in the central and east.

On Tuesday, the chance for thunderstorms extends across all of Oklahoma. For the central and western part of the state, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy during the day. Then, at night, thunderstorms will develop, and they may be severe, as the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a slight risk for severe thunderstorms encompassing most of Oklahoma except the panhandle and southeast. For Tuesday, highs will be in the 60s in the north, 70s in the central and south, and the 80s in the far southwest. Breezy southerly winds will fuel warmer highs and allow moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to aid thunderstorm development. For Tuesday night, colder air starts to invade the state, with lows in the 30s in the panhandle, 40s in the northwest, 50s in central Oklahoma and the northeast, and 60s in southern Oklahoma.

Wednesday

Wednesday brings the ramp-up of thunderstorm development and possible severe weather, as well as noticeably colder temperatures in some places. Thunderstorms will be likely in central and eastern Oklahoma and have a greater chance of being severe, especially in central and northeastern Oklahoma, as the Storm Prediction Center has already outlined a MODERATE RISK for this area. This looks to be a primary large hail threat at this time, but we cannot rule out the chance of a tornado. In western Oklahoma, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms, but they should not be severe in nature. For Wednesday’s highs, we will have much cooler 50s and 60s (maybe even 40s) stretching across northern and northwestern Oklahoma. The 70s will be in place further towards the south.

Wednesday Night

For Wednesday night, thunderstorm development remains likely in central and eastern Oklahoma, with storms strengthening. Therefore, the severe threat worsens, with large hail and damaging winds providing danger. Tornadoes are still not out of the picture. In western Oklahoma, you get the chance to greet winter (again) as we have a slight chance for a wintry mix of precipitation. In the panhandle, snow showers will be the primary form of winter weather we see Wednesday night. Lows will dip down into the 20s again the panhandle, 30s across the core of the state, and 40s and 50s further towards the southeast.

Thursday and Friday
For Thursday, the wintry weather now spreads to central Oklahoma as skies in the west begin to clear. In central Oklahoma, you can expect rain showers with some sleet to mix in. The chance for showers, without any wintry precipitation, remains in far eastern Oklahoma as the cold front continues to pass through. Elsewhere, skies will start to clear, but highs will be cold. 40s will be the highs in the panhandle. 50s will be the highs elsewhere. On Friday, skies will be mostly sunny, with highs rebounding somewhat to the mid-to-upper-50s. The highs will return to near-normal by the weekend with mostly sunny skies.

CLICK HERE to see the latest convective outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center.

Sources: NWS, SPC, HOOT, Mesonet