ALERT: Severe Weather Threat Ahead!

Heads up! A widespread outbreak of severe weather is expected to impact the central and southern Plains through Wednesday of this week. In the desert southwest, a deep trough will form. To the east of this trough, southerly winds will allow warm, humid air near the surface to flow from the Gulf of Mexico northward to the affected region. As the trough moves eastward, we will have the cold, dry air as a part of the trough overtake the warm, humid air, thus providing a perfect scenario for severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes. Currently, we have a sharp dryline, a line separating dry air with moist air, in place over the Oklahoma panhandle. This dryline will slowly push eastward but will eventually be overtaken by the strong cold front as a result of the trough by early Wednesday. Following the severe weather on Monday and Tuesday, the result of the cold front will be more unseasonably cool temperatures, especially low temperatures, which will drop near or well-below the freezing mark for a great deal of the state by Friday morning.

Monday
Let us start off the week with Monday. The Storm Prediction Center has currently outlined the area of concern for severe thunderstorm development to be in western Oklahoma, central and western Kansas, eastern Colorado, and southern Nebraska. You can see this from the graphic above, and by visiting the SPC's Convective Outlook page HERE. Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely to develop in the affected region by mid-afternoon to Monday evening with low-level moisture continuing to be brought from the Gulf of Mexico into this region. Primary threats are large hail and a few tornadoes. After midnight, convective inhibition and “CAP” will confine the area of likely severe thunderstorm development to northern Oklahoma.

Elsewhere across the state on Monday, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies. High temperatures will be cooler in the east, topping out in the upper-60s, milder in central Oklahoma, reaching the 70s, and rather warm in the west, reaching the 80s. As mentioned earlier, winds will be southerly and strong, blowing at 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.

Monday Night

On Monday night, the area of risk for severe thunderstorm development diminishes to mainly north central and part of northwest Oklahoma. However, beware that this does not mean the storms will be weaker. Large hail and isolated tornadoes remain threats in the highlighted region should storms develop. For the rest of the state, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies. Lows will be in the 60s across the core of the state, but as you can see from the map above, a sharp temperature gradient will be in place, resulting in lows in the 40s and 50s in the panhandle and extreme western Oklahoma. Southerly winds will continue to blow at sustained speeds of 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.









Tuesday

On Tuesday, the threat for severe thunderstorm development stretches across all of Oklahoma, expect the far west and panhandle. Unfortunately, computer models still seem to be in somewhat of a disagreement about where the worst of the threat could be, so if your area is in red on the map above, please be prepared. The storms will, again, begin to fire up in the afternoon and continue through the evening and overnight hours. Primary threats will be large hail and tornadoes. For Tuesday’s highs, you can notice the position of the cold front as 60s, 70s, and even some 80s are followed by the 40s in the far western portion of the panhandle. Continuing to aid in bringing moisture northward, southerly winds will blow between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. In the panhandle, winds behind the cold front will become northwesterly and be even stronger, with sustained speeds between 25 and 35 mph and gusts up to 45 mph.





Tuesday Night

For Tuesday night, all of the state looks to be impacted by some type of weather. The severe threat shifts slightly east but still encompasses a great deal of the state, including central and eastern Oklahoma. In the panhandle, there is a slight chance of snow/rain and snow showers, mainly occurring before midnight. Lows will become unseasonably cold by Wednesday morning, and you can notice the sharp temperature gradient that will define itself across the state. 20s will stretch across much of northwest Oklahoma, with 30s across central Oklahoma, and 40s to 60s in the east. Behind the cold front, the winds will blow from the north-northwest at 20 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Ahead of the front, winds will continue to blow from the south before transitioning to the north-northwest.







Wednesday

At this time, models are a little unsure about how cold it will be on Wednesday. Currently, we are expecting to see highs in the 40s across most of the state, with some 50s in the southwest and even chillier 30s in the panhandle and parts of the east, as this is a powerful cold front. As far as the weather conditions are concerned, the severe threat for Oklahoma is gone by Wednesday, but thunderstorms will persist, especially in the east.















Thursday and Friday
So how does the rest of the week shape up? By Thursday and Friday, the severe threat and rain exit the state, with skies clearing. Temperatures remain chilly on Thursday, though. You can expect highs in the low-to-mid-50s across the core of the state, with highs reaching the upper-50s to low-60s across the panhandle and far southern and western Oklahoma. By Friday, with skies still generally clear, highs will warm back up to the 60s for the most part. Then you can enjoy the return of the 70s by the weekend, with mostly clear skies.

Sources: NWS, SPC, HOOT, Mesonet