Wednesday, November 20, 2013

EXCEPTIONAL Cold Front Coming!














Forget the arctic front of last week!  That will seem like almost nothing compared to what is coming.  Another strong cold front will be pushing into the state beginning Thursday afternoon, but this front will be exceptionally strong, and an upper-level low will provide moisture that will lead to our first traces of wintry weather across parts of the state.  Additionally, the cold and wintry weather will be sticking around through early next week, creating a potential mess for your end-of-week and beginning-of-week plans.  We will now detail what you can expect in the coming days by region in Oklahoma.

THE PANHANDLE
The front will reach the panhandle first.  The timing of the front's arrival will be early to mid-Thursday afternoon.  Before the front arrives, temperatures will rise to the mid-to-upper-40s, then fall to around the freezing mark by the evening hours and continue to fall drastically as the front passes farther into the state.  A slight chance of rain can be expected throughout the late morning and early afternoon on Thursday. Then, once temperatures begin to drop at or below freezing, expect a slight chance for freezing drizzle.  This may become a wintry mix towards the later evening hours, with freezing drizzle mixing with snow and sleet, then all snow after midnight.  After the passage of the front, a strong northerly wind will blow between 15 and 25 mph, gusting as high as 35 mph.  This will create wind chill values as cold as 0 degrees!

As temperatures continue to fall overnight Thursday into Friday morning, expect a very frigid Friday morning with temperatures in the mid-to-upper-teens.  Wintry precipitation will remain possible throughout the day on Friday, with snow occurring in the early morning hours, becoming a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain mid-morning through the evening.  Please take extra caution in your Friday travel plans, as the high temperatures in the panhandle are not forecast to rise above freezing!  Friday's highs will be in the upper-20s to low-30s across the panhandle, thus supporting any snow and ice accumulation.  Additionally, strong northerly winds will persist, blowing between 20 and 30 mph and gusting to 40 mph.  Wind chill values will, thus, be between 0 and 10 degrees.  Bundle up if you plan on going outside!

For Friday evening and early Saturday morning, continue to expect a chance of wintry mix, with freezing drizzle or rain mixing with snow and sleet.  The lows for Saturday morning will be in the low-to-mid-20s.  For the remainder of the day, skies will remain cloudy, with a high temperature rising to the low-to-mid-30s.  Winds will continue to blow from the north, at around 10 to 15 mph.

Late Saturday night, a slight chance for snow can be expected, with a slight chance of snow and sleet through Sunday afternoon.  Sunday morning's lows will be in the low-20s, while highs on Sunday will be in the low-to-upper-30s.  By Sunday night, wintry weather should come to an end, and skies will slowly begin to clear.

NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Next stop for the cold front: Northwest Oklahoma.  For tonight, expect a chance for showers and thunderstorms later in the night, with temperatures dropping to the low-to-mid-50s.  On Thursday, the chance for showers and thunderstorms remains throughout the day.  The temperature will rise to the upper-50s in the early afternoon, then fall drastically to the mid-30s by late-afternoon and continue to fall through the evening and overnight hours.  After the front passes, rain may become freezing rain in the evening, mixed with sleet overnight.  A north wind will blow between 15 and 20 mph after the front passes through.

For Friday morning, temperatures will drop to the mid-20s.  These chilly, sub-freezing temperatures will remain nearly stagnant throughout the day and overnight into Saturday morning.  With plenty of moisture still in the air, a chance for a wintry mix of precipitation remains possible throughout the entire day on Friday, through midnight. Freezing rain will mix with sleet and snow.  The wintry weather will come to an end by Saturday, with skies clearly partially and temperatures rising to the upper-30s.  On Saturday night, clouds will increase, and Sunday through Monday brings another round of wintry weather, with snow and sleet possible. 

SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Expect a small chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight, with temperatures dropping to the upper-50s.  On Thursday, a chance for showers and thunderstorms exists throughout the day.  Temperatures will rise to an abnormally warm 70 to 75 degrees.  However, in the late evening, that pleasantly warm temperature will begin to fall dramatically as the front passes through.  By Friday morning, expect temperatures in the low-30s, just at or below freezing.  As a result, rain showers will become freezing rain in the early morning on Friday.  A chance for freezing rain will exist throughout the day on Friday, from the early morning through midnight.  The high on Friday will be at or just below freezing, supporting slight ice accumulations, so please beware.  A strong north wind will blow between 15 and 25 mph, gusting to 35 mph, creating very cold wind chill values.

Skies should clear partially on Saturday, with a temperature rising to the low-40s in the afternoon.  On Sunday morning, lows will be in the mid-to-upper-20s.  A second round of wintry weather may come Sunday morning and last through Monday night.  Chances are slight at this time, as all the details are currently uncertain, but please be aware for additional wintry precipitation early next week.

CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Later tonight, expect a chance of showers and thunderstorms, with temperatures falling to the mid-to-upper-50s by Thursday morning.  The chance for showers and thunderstorms remains throughout the day on Thursday, with great chances on Thursday evening.  Highs will rise as high as the upper-60s in south central Oklahoma, the mid-60s in central Oklahoma, but only the upper-50s in north central Oklahoma.  North central Oklahoma will see temperatures fall earlier than central and south central Oklahoma.  Once the front passes through by Thursday evening, expect temperatures to drop at or below freezing, except for south central Oklahoma, where temperatures will only drop to the mid-40s.  In areas that see temperatures at or below the freezing mark, rain has the potential to become freezing rain, mainly beginning Friday morning, leaving slight ice accumulations and making travel dangerous.  Please take caution when driving on bridges and overpasses, as these are the first parts of the road to freeze!  Also take caution when driving on east-west roads, as a strong northerly wind will blow between 20 and 25 mph, gusting as high as 35 mph.

The chance for freezing rain exists from Friday morning through midnight Saturday in central and north central Oklahoma, with temperatures on Friday remaining stagnant at or below the freezing mark.  South central Oklahoma will be the exception: no wintry weather is expected, as temperatures will remain well-above freezing in the low-to-mid-40s.  You can expect a cold rain here.

All precipitation will come to an end by Saturday, but skies will remain mostly cloudy, and temperatures will struggle to rise past the upper-30s to low-40s.  On Saturday night, expect lows in the 20s.  Then, with south central Oklahoma included this time, the second round of wintry weather greets the central part of the state on Sunday and will last through Monday night.  Again, chances are slight at this time, but expect a potential wintry mix of precipitation to occur in this time frame across all of central Oklahoma with temperatures in the 30s.

NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
Showers, with a few rumbles of thunder, are likely tonight as temperatures drop to the low-to-mid-50s.  For Thursday, a significant chance for showers, with thunderstorms possible, exists throughout the day as temperatures rise to the upper-50s to low-60s.  The cold front will move through from Thursday night into Friday morning, dropping temperatures down to the low-to-mid-30s.  Only if the temperature drops at or below freezing will freezing rain occur.  In far northeast Oklahoma, the temperature is currently slated to remain above freezing, meaning that a cold rain is what can be expected from Thursday night into Friday morning, and throughout the day on Friday.  A slight chance for freezing rain is possible Friday night as the temperature drops just below the freezing mark to 30 or 31 degrees.  For the rest of northeast Oklahoma, temperatures are forecast to drop to freezing by Friday morning, meaning that freezing rain is possible.  However, temperatures on Friday afternoon will rise slightly above freezing, allowing the freezing rain to transition to a cold rain only.  Still, please take caution when travelling out and about on Friday, as the rain could become freezing rain with no warning.  On Friday night, the temperature will drop back below freezing, causing any precipitation to fall to become freezing rain again.

In northeast Oklahoma, all of the precipitation will end by Saturday morning, with skies clearing partially, and temperatures rising to the upper-30s to low-40s on Saturday afternoon.  Saturday night will have partly cloudy skies, as will Sunday.  A slight chance for rain is possible on Sunday, with temperatures in the mid-20s on Sunday morning, rising to the low-40s on Sunday afternoon.  The second round for wintry weather is possible in this region of Oklahoma beginning Sunday night, as temperatures fall to the low-30s.  The wintry precipitation will be a wintry mix, as freezing rain mixes with snow and sleet.

SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
At the present time, southeast Oklahoma is not slated to see any wintry precipitation from this system as temperatures will remain above freezing.  However, you can still expect plenty of rain with this system.  From tonight through Saturday morning, expect a decent chance for showers, with a few thunderstorms also possible.  The temperature Thursday morning will be in the low-to-mid-50s.  On Thursday, highs will be in the low-to-mid-60s.  Thursday night will see lows falling to the mid-30s, expect for extreme southeastern Oklahoma, which will see lows in the mid-50s.  On Friday, afternoon temperatures will only be in the mid-to-upper-30s, and finally fall to the low-to-mid-40s by Friday mid-afternoon for extreme southeastern Oklahoma as the front passes through.  A strong northerly wind will follow the front, with sustained speeds between 20 and 25 mph, gusting to 30 mph.  As with the rest of the state, all precipitation is slated to end by Saturday late morning through Saturday night.  But, the second round comes Sunday and Sunday night, with wintry precipitation coming into the picture Sunday night as rain mixes with sleet and temperatures fall to the freezing mark.

INFOGRAPHICS
Provided by The National Weather Service, Norman, OK














































AC

Sources: National Weather Service, HOOT (NAM model display)

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