UPDATE: Severe Weather to Strike Oklahoma Sunday

Ahead of a strong cold front, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to fire up across central and eastern Oklahoma on Sunday afternoon.  The highest threat area is in a small part of northeast Oklahoma that includes the Tulsa metro area.  Risks from Sunday's storms include large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes.  Please stay weather aware tomorrow, especially if you have outdoor plans.

The timing of storm development will begin around 3pm, with storms lasting through midnight.  In northeast Oklahoma, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a MODERATE RISK, mainly for damaging winds and large hail to tennis-ball size that will result from a squall line of storms ahead of the cold front.  In addition to the squall line, a few supercells may develop during the mid-to-late afternoon hours ahead of a dryline, which will be positioned across central Oklahoma.  These supercells will develop in southwestern Oklahoma as the result of strong daytime surface heating and push towards central and eventually eastern Oklahoma.  Initial threats from supercell development will be very large hail and isolated tornadoes.  The supercells will then push eastward and then merge with the squall line ahead of the cold front, creating primarily a damaging wind and hail threat.

Expect daytime highs tomorrow to continue to be warm across central, eastern, and southwestern Oklahoma tomorrow, with the upper-70s to mid-80s expected.  Across northwestern Oklahoma, highs will be in the low-to-mid-70s.  The panhandle will see the cold front move through early tomorrow, causing highs to only reach the mid-50s.

Behind the dryline in western Oklahoma, storms will not be of a threat, but an enhanced wildfire danger is.  A FIRE WEATHER WATCH has already been issued for counties across western Oklahoma for relative humidity values between 10 and 15 percent, southwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph, and generally warm afternoon temperatures.  Burning is highly discouraged tomorrow!

This is expected to be a very powerful cold front!  We are expecting wintry weather and freezing temperatures to make a return to the state on Sunday night through Tuesday morning.  For the panhandle, Sunday night's lows will be in the upper-20s, with a chance for rain in the early evening transitioning to a rain, snow, and sleet mixture in the late evening, transitioning to all snow after midnight.  Snow and sleet accumulations are likely and will vary across the panhandle, with totals up to 3 inches in the far western portion of the panhandle to totals only dusting to a half an inch in the eastern portion of the panhandle.  Even northwestern and north central Oklahoma have the potential to see a chance for rain and snow showers Sunday night into Monday morning.  In these regions, accumulations should remain minimal.

Lingering rain showers are possible across the rest of the state behind the cold front into Monday morning.  Monday's highs will be very chilly across the state.  Except for extreme southern Oklahoma where highs will be in the low-50s, highs will not rise above the 40s on Monday across the state.  For Monday night into Tuesday morning, except for southern Oklahoma, expect sub-freezing temperatures in the upper-20s to low-30s across the state.  The National Weather Service in Norman, OK has already issued a FREEZE WATCH for these areas, in effect early Tuesday morning.  Please take care in protecting tender plants and vegetation from the cold weather.

Now is the time to prepare for the changing weather conditions.  Unfortunately, the pleasant temperatures in the 80s we've experienced for the past few days will be going away for at least the next week.  We ask that you take the necessary precautions to protect yourself from both the severe weather and colder temperatures.  Having a plan and being ready to enact it is the best defense against a sudden change in the weather conditions.

AC

Sources:
Storm Prediction Center
NWS Amarillo
NWS Norman
NWS Tulsa
Google Images (story photo)