Severe Weather Potential for the Weekend

While conditions are warm and dry right now, much of Oklahoma will see Thunderstorm chances over the weekend, with some storms having the potential to become severe and bring dangerous hail, winds, and possibly Tornadoes.











Today, temperatures were incredibly warm and dry, especially in the Western half of the state, where high temperatures reached the upper 80's. The rest of the state saw high's right around 80. While Friday was pleasant, expect conditions to change once this low front moves through Oklahoma. Tonight will be mild, with temperatures in the upper 50's to low 60's with clear skies.

Most of the rain and thunderstorms won't reach Oklahoma until late in the day Saturday, with some storms lingering in the Eastern part of the state until Sunday.

WEEKEND FORECAST BY REGION:

Panhandle: The Panhandle will avoid the storms and weather for the weekend, seeing zero chances for precipitation. The Panhandle will see partly cloudy skies for the entire weekend, with dry skies and strong winds which will bring high fire danger warnings. This area will also see incredibly warm temperatures Saturday, with highs around 90, before dipping down to the mid 40's overnight. The temperature will then reach the low 70's for Sunday.

Northwest: The Northwest part of the state will see small chances for thunderstorms on Saturday, at around 30-40%. If this area is impacted, the storms will start at around 5 p.m. and continue into Saturday evening. Overnight, the storms should clear completely out of the area. This area will see temperatures in the upper 80's for Saturday, and then once the front moves out of the area temperatures will drop to the upper 50's overnight. Sunday will see temperatures in the mid to upper 70's, with partly cloudy skies.

Southwest: The Southwest part of Oklahoma will see chances for rain and thunderstorms, and this area could see the best potential for severe thunderstorms bringing hail, winds, and possibly tornadoes. The Southwest will see chances of around 50-60% for rain and thunderstorms starting around 5 p.m., with the majority of the activity taking place Saturday evening. There is also a small chance of around 20% that there will be some storm activity that lingers into Sunday morning. The Southwest will see high temperatures from the upper 80's to right around 90 Saturday, before cooling off to the mid 60's overnight. This area will also see high temperatures around 80 for Sunday. Saturday will see increasingly cloudy skies as the day goes on, before clearing out early Sunday and giving way too sunny skies. Winds will also be extremely high in this area for the weekend, so watch out for fire danger warnings.

Central: The Central Oklahoma and OKC areas will see good chances for rain Saturday at around 60%. The rain could start at 7 p.m., but the majority of the thunderstorms and rain will occur overnight and into Sunday morning. This area has about a 40% chance of rain continuing past Sunday morning. The severity of these thunderstorms will decrease as the night moves on, so this region will not see as strong of storms as the Southwest will. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80's for Saturday, before decreasing down into the mid to upper 60's overnight. This region will see increasingly cloudy skies on Saturday, and mostly cloudy skies overnight. Sunday, once the front passes, these clouds will move out of the area. Sunday will see a high in the low 80's.

Southeast: The Southeast portion of the state will see very good chances for rain and thunderstorms, but mostly early Sunday, into Sunday afternoon. The rain will start past midnight Saturday, and will continue overnight, until early afternoon Sunday. Overnight, the Southeast will see a 30-40% chance of thunderstorms, while Sunday it will see a 80% chance. These storms will not become severe until Sunday afternoon, when the main threat will be hail, winds, and possible tornadoes. The high temperature Saturday will be in the mid 80's, cooling down to the mid to upper 60's overnight. Sunday will see a high in the upper 70's. This region will see partly cloudy skies until overnight Saturday to Sunday, when it will see predominantly cloudy skies.

Northeast: The Northeast and Tulsa areas will see chances of thunderstorms at around 40-50% Saturday night, increasing to 70-80% into Sunday. The timing of these storms will be similar to the Southeast, but there will most likely be a less likelihood of severe storms and tornadoes than in the Southeast. The high temperature for Saturday will be in the mid to upper 80's, dropping to the mid to upper 60's overnight, and then reaching the upper 70's and possibly 80 on Sunday. Clouds will become increasingly dense overnight Saturday, until becoming mostly cloudy Sunday.



Of Note: The predominant danger associated with these thunderstorms will be large hail and very strong winds, although there will be a chance of tornadoes late evening Saturday in the West and Central portions of the state, and Sunday afternoon in the East and Southeast. Early Saturday and early Sunday before and after the front passes through, the Western half of the state will see very dry conditions with extremely high wind gusts over 40 mph, so there could be some high fire danger warnings for the weekend.
Once the front moves out of Oklahoma it will bring chilly temperatures. Monday morning will experience lows in mid 50's, with mid 40's in the Panhandle. The high temperature could reach 80 in the South, but will remain in the mid to upper 70's for most of the state with clear to partly cloudy skies. There will also be a very small chance (20%) of some rain showers in the Panhandle overnight.

As the week progresses, temperatures will consistently get cooler, with lows expected to be in the upper 40's Tuesday morning, and the mid 40's Wednesday. High's will also be far below average for this time of year, with highs in the upper 60's to low 70's Tuesday, and mid 60's Wednesday. So enjoy the rest of Friday and early Saturday, because it will continue getting cooler from here on out.

From all of us here at the Oklahoma Weather Lab, thanks for reading and have a safe weekend!

Sources: NWS, Mesonet




- Casey Olechnowicz