Last weekend through early this week, an upper-level low moved over the state of Oklahoma, which was then followed by a strong cold front. Together, these systems brought beneficial rainfall to the state as well as significantly colder temperatures which were more reminiscent of mid-November than mid-October. While skies have cleared today, more rain is expected on Friday with the passage of yet another upper-level trough and cold front. More significantly, however, is a weather pattern change that will bring long-lasting fall-like temperatures after the next front passes through the state.
Before we look ahead to the future, let us first look back on the past. Many areas of the state, most notably the central and eastern portions, received very beneficial rainfall over the past few days. Most of the rain received was a several-hour light to moderate rain, which did fall heavy at times. However, thunderstorms, some strong, also greeted some Oklahoma residents early Tuesday morning. The Mesonet map to the right shows the rainfall totals for the past five days, meaning the data is valid since Saturday afternoon. Far south central and southeast Oklahoma picked up on the most rainfall, with some stations reporting over 3 inches. Other areas of central and eastern Oklahoma generally received between 1 and 3 inches of rain.
Much cooler temperatures accompanied the rainfall. Oklahoma City's high yesterday (Wednesday, October 16) was only 59 degrees, an average high we would normally see around the latter half of November. Tulsa's high was also only 61 degrees, an average high we would normally see around late-November. This morning's lows were some of the coldest we have seen since spring, with sub-freezing temperatures being recorded in the panhandle. Widespread 30s to low-40s were recorded for the rest of the state. Low temperatures this cold are also something we would expect to see in November, not mid-October.If you are enjoying the abundant sunshine and beautiful fall temperatures today, you are going to have to wait until the weekend to see them return (which, luckily, is only a couple of days away). An upper-level trough and associated cold front will push through the state Friday and Friday night, bringing a damper to the end of the week with yet another round of rain and much colder temperatures. Northern Oklahoma will see the greatest chances for rain, between 60% and 70%. Central Oklahoma will see a 50% chance for rain, while southern Oklahoma sees a 30% chance for rain. As the system pushes from west to east, expect the rain to occur in northwest Oklahoma primarily in the morning on Friday, while the rain to occur in central Oklahoma primarily in the afternoon and early evening. Eastern Oklahoma will see the best rain chances Friday evening into overnight. Behind the front and clearing skies in central and western Oklahoma, expect very cold morning temperatures to start your weekend, even colder than what we saw this morning. Temperatures at borderline freezing will occur across northern Oklahoma. Central to southern Oklahoma may see some patchy frost with lows dipping down into the mid-to-upper-30s.
We mentioned a pattern change at the beginning of this post that we will now discuss. Normally, after the passage of cold fronts, the temperature will be quite chilly for a couple of days before rebounding back to normal or in some cases, above normal. However, this has not been the case with the last system and will not be the case for this next one, either. You may have noticed how suddenly temperatures dropped from being relatively consistent the 80s to hovering around the 60s and 70s (if even that) since the weekend. Looking at the Oklahoma City temperature trend graph for October to the right, highs were mostly above normal for the first half of the month but will be generally below normal for the next seven days, according to the forecast by the National Weather Service. Therefore, fall is certainly here to stay for now.AC
Sources: NWS, Mesonet, Torfaen Libraries' blog (photo)
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