Enhanced Risk of Severe Storms Wednesday

It's springtime in Oklahoma!  Following a few strong storms in eastern Oklahoma today as the result of a weak cold front, a much stronger cold front resulting from an upper-level trough will move through the state Wednesday.  With a capping inversion weakening throughout the day and sufficient surface heating, moisture, and low-level shear, the atmosphere ahead of the cold front will be unstable and favorable for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms.  As this will be our first widespread occurrence of severe weather this year, we encourage you to take necessary precautions.

Do not be fooled if you wake up on Wednesday morning and see sunshine!  Storms are not expected to develop until later in the afternoon.  In fact, sunshine will allow for more surface heating, which developing storms favor.  Highs on Wednesday will continue to be well-above average for most of the state, with the low-to-mid-80s expected across southwestern Oklahoma and the mid-to-upper-70s expected across central and eastern Oklahoma.  Cooler highs can be expected across northwest Oklahoma and the panhandle as the cold front will have already moved through earlier in the day.  Highs across the panhandle will be a stark difference from the rest of the state, only reaching the low-to-mid-60s.  Across northwest Oklahoma, expect highs in the upper-60s to low-70s.  Also important to note is that northwest Oklahoma and the panhandle will see a very limited risk of severe weather on Wednesday!  Storms are expected to form east of these regions.  Good news?  No severe weather to deal with.  Bad news?  No rain, either.

Mid-afternoon around 3 pm, at the time of maximum surface heating, is when storm initiation is likely to begin.  Storms will first fire up as individual supercells before combining into a squall line later in the evening and perhaps becoming a large complex of storms overnight as they push east.  When storms first develop, large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats.  The tornado threat at this point is very low, but we cannot rule any out, especially with the discrete storms.  As the storms form a squall line later, the main threat will be damaging winds, along with some hail.

Central, south central, and parts of southwestern and northeastern Oklahoma are in an ENHANCED RISK of severe thunderstorms as issued by the Storm Prediction Center.  In this enhanced risk are the Oklahoma City and Tulsa metro areas.  Surrounding this enhanced risk are slight and marginal risks, which encompass all of the state except the northwest and panhandle.  Storms are expected to fire up first in the enhanced risk area then push eastward.  Thus, central, south central, and sections of southwestern and northeastern Oklahoma are the most likely areas to see large hail and any tornado which could develop.

Storms will end from west to east.  Most storm activity will occur before midnight in central and southwestern Oklahoma and will end by early Thursday morning in eastern Oklahoma.  As storms end, skies will clear by Thursday afternoon.  However, high temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be some 10 to 20 degrees cooler across the entire state.

AC


DID YOU KNOW? The Storm Prediction Center has added two new categories to their Day 1 - 3 categorical outlooks.  For more information on the new categories and what they mean, click here.

Sources: NWS, SPC