Ah yes. As the strong upper-level ridge breaks down, we are approaching the time of year where we typically see cold fronts once every week. Our first "significant" front of the approaching fall season is now arriving. The front is working its way into the panhandle and will progress across the entire state over the next couple of days. With it will be an increased chance for rain as well as much cooler temperatures.
TRACK THE FRONT:
Current Temperatures
3-Hour Temperature Change
Current Winds
Storm chances are as high as 70 percent across the panhandle tonight, mainly after midnight, into Friday. Some storms may be strong, with strong wind gusts and small hail. In addition, locally heavy rainfall may be possible with some storms. Minimal storm chances are in place for northwest and north central Oklahoma tonight, ranging from about 20 to 30 percent. Other areas of the state will see no rain tonight with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies expected. Low temperatures will fall to the 60s in the panhandle but remain in the lower to middle 70s across the rest of the state ahead of the front.
On Friday, the highest rain chances will remain in the panhandle during the day at around 70 percent. For the afternoon, minimal rain chances at no greater than 30 percent are possible across the rest of the state. Generally cloudy skies can be expected in the panhandle with much cooler high temperatures only in the middle 60s to middle 70s. Northwest Oklahoma will start to see clouds increase during the afternoon and also see slightly cooler afternoon temperatures as the front pushes through; expect highs in the middle to upper 80s for this region. For the rest of the state, expect partly to mostly sunny skies with highs still reaching the lower to middle 90s. Beginning Friday evening and lasting through Friday night, the storm chances increase in northwest and north central Oklahoma to as much as 70 percent. The panhandle may see some lingering showers and thunderstorms, with rain chances between 30 and 40 percent in this region. The remainder of the state (except for far southern Oklahoma) is slated to see around a 40 to 50 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms Friday night (far southern Oklahoma will only see around a 20 to 30 percent chance for rain).
Saturday morning will start with chilly (relatively speaking) lows in the panhandle. Expect temperatures to drop to as low as the lower 50s. Lows in the 60s can be expected for most of the rest of the state, but south central and southeast Oklahoma will continue to see lows in the 70s. Rain chances on Saturday will be highest in central and eastern Oklahoma between 40 and 50 percent. Some higher rain chances also extend into parts of southwest Oklahoma. For central Oklahoma, most of the shower and thunderstorm activity will be confined to the morning hours, while for eastern Oklahoma, showers and thunderstorms may linger into the afternoon. Especially for southeast Oklahoma, showers and thunderstorms are not expected until the afternoon. A clear temperature gradient will be in place across Oklahoma Saturday regarding high temperatures. Coolest highs will be in the panhandle and northwest Oklahoma in the upper 60s well behind the front, with warmest highs in the lower 90s across far southeast Oklahoma ahead of the front. Skies will be generally cloudy across most of the state on Saturday but begin to clear partially in the panhandle and northwest Oklahoma later in the afternoon.
Small rain chances remain in the forecast Saturday night and Sunday, even Sunday night into Monday for southeast Oklahoma, but the bulk of the "activity" from this front should be done by this time. Temperatures will remain on the cool side through the start of next week, then warm slightly before another cold front expected around mid-week knocks them back down again. It's a clear sign we're headed into the fall season, now just about three weeks away!
AC
Sources: NWS, Mesonet, WPC
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