UPDATE: "Significant" Severe Weather Still Likely

We are still watching out for the possibility for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday, as well as on Thursday.  Areas in central and eastern Oklahoma need to be on the lookout for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms that will fire up ahead of a dryline that will be positioned in western Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon.  The warm front is expected to lift into northern Oklahoma near the Oklahoma-Kansas border, and conditions will be favorable for significant severe thunderstorm development.  Hazards will include very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and the chance for isolated tornadoes.

LATEST:
Track the Warm Front
Track the Dryline

Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy on Wednesday; northwestern Oklahoma will have the least amount of cloud cover throughout the day.  As the warm front lifts north, central and northern Oklahoma will see highs much warmer than today.  Oklahoma's warmest highs tomorrow will be in western Oklahoma, with northwest Oklahoma seeing highs in the mid-80s and southwest Oklahoma seeing highs reach the upper-80s.  Central Oklahoma will see highs in the low-80s, while eastern and the panhandle Oklahoma see highs in the upper-70s.

Note that western Oklahoma and the panhandle will be behind the dryline, so these areas will not see thunderstorms in the afternoon and instead have an increased risk for wildfires as humidity levels will be low, temperatures will be warm, and winds will be relatively strong, especially in the panhandle.  A RED FLAG WARNING has been issued for the panhandle for Wednesday, and a FIRE WEATHER WATCH has been issued for counties in western Oklahoma for Wednesday.

In front of the dryline, the story is different.  Beginning in the late-afternoon and early evening, the CAP will weaken, and surface heating will be strong enough to enable the development of isolated severe thunderstorms.  The exact position of the dryline in the afternoon is still in question, but currently, the map to the left shows areas with the greatest risk of severe weather being in central and eastern Oklahoma.  When storms develop, they will quickly become severe, producing hail up to baseball size, damaging wind gusts to 70 mph, and the possibility for tornadoes as well.  The storms will push eastward during the late evening hours, with the tornado threat becoming greatest at this time.  After sunset, storms will decrease in severity but still pose similar hazards.

WED. TIMING:
4 to 10pm

WED. THREATS:
Hail to baseball-size
Wind gusts to 70 mph
Isolated tornadoes

Storms may linger through Wednesday night and Thursday morning in central and eastern Oklahoma, with lows ranging from the upper-30s in the panhandle to the mid-60s in southeastern Oklahoma.  Storms may still be strong to severe, with hazards including hail to the size of golf balls and damaging wind gusts to 70 mph.  For Thursday afternoon, the dryline will be positioned in central to eastern Oklahoma, with storms firing up well into eastern Oklahoma, in the far counties.  Hazards with these isolated storms will be very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and again the possibility of isolated tornadoes.

THU. TIMING:
Morning (central/eastern OK)
Afternoon (far eastern OK)

THU. THREATS:
Hail to baseball-size
Wind gusts to 70 mph
Isolated tornadoes

The severe weather threat is expected to end by Friday, with the state experiencing mostly sunny skies.  However, afternoon temperatures will be much cooler, with highs in the low-to-mid-60s across the state.  Cooler temperatures will last through the temperature into next week, with shower and thunderstorm chances returning on Saturday and Sunday.  Storms are not expected to be severe during this time frame.

AC

Sources: NWS Norman, NWS Tulsa, Storm Prediction Center