Winter's Last Stand!

 

With moisture still in place and much colder air arriving as the result of a cold front, another round for wintry weather is expected beginning later this evening and lasting through Wednesday.  This will (hopefully) be winter's last stand.  Long-range models are showing normal to above-normal temperatures and normal to below-normal precipitation for at least the next couple of weeks beginning this weekend.  We can do this!  Together, we can survive winter's final battle!

Alerts in Effect
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WINTER STORM WATCH
WINTER STORM WARNING
 








Track the Front

CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURE
3-HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE
CURRENT WINDS







   

This Evening/Tonight
The cold front has already made its way into the panhandle and northern Oklahoma and is expected to reach central Oklahoma within the next few hours.  The front will bring a steady decrease in temperatures through at least midday tomorrow, if not throughout the entire day and overnight into Thursday.  Winds will change direction from the south and west to the north and east just before the front arrives.  Behind the front, much stronger wind speeds are expected, with sustained speeds between 15 and 20 mph and gusts as high as 30 mph. 

Light rain showers have developed along and behind the front.  The rain will increase in coverage and affect central Oklahoma beginning later this evening and eastern Oklahoma beginning after midnight tonight.  The first precipitation that begins to fall will be a cold, liquid rain because temperatures will not be below freezing yet.  This will change as temperatures continue to fall overnight into Wednesday morning.

Western Oklahoma and the panhandle may see wintry precipitation begin to fall just before midnight tonight as temperatures start to dip below freezing.  Rain will change to freezing rain, perhaps mixed with some sleet and snow, and then change over to all snow by tomorrow early morning.  Please exercise caution if you must travel anywhere across western Oklahoma after midnight tonight.

Wednesday
As a wintry mix of precipitation changes to all snow in the early morning, snow is the only precipitation type to expect on Wednesday during the daylight hours for northwest Oklahoma and the panhandle, especially as temperatures remain well-below freezing all day long.  Snow will last through mid-afternoon in the panhandle and until the evening hours in northwest Oklahoma.  North winds will continue to be relatively strong, blowing at 15 to 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph.  This may create areas of blowing snow, greatly reducing visibilities.

The story is different across the rest of the state.  With precipitation types changing throughout the day, it may be difficult to pinpoint exact times as to when the types will change.  However, we will give you a brief idea of what to expect.  What can be expected are strong winds from the north at 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.  Even stronger winds are expected in southwest Oklahoma, sustained at 25 to 30 mph and gusting to 40 mph.  These strong winds will greatly reduce visibilities when precipitation is falling and also lead to dangerously cold wind chill values.  Be sure to bundle up if going outside!

After midnight tonight, expect rain to mix with freezing rain and sleet in north central Oklahoma as temperatures fall below freezing.  This mixture will then become all sleet by the early morning hours, and then all snow by the afternoon hours.  Snow is expected to end before midnight Thursday.

Rain will continue through the early morning hours before switching to a freezing rain by the morning commute time in southwestern, central, and northeastern Oklahoma.  This may create serious travel problems in the Oklahoma City and Tulsa metro areas Wednesday morning.  Any time between 6 am and 9 am is when we expect temperatures to fall below freezing in these areas of the state.  Some sleet and snow may begin to mix in with the freezing rain during the mid-morning hours.  After noon in central and southwestern Oklahoma, expect periods of sleet that may mix with snow.  After noon in northeastern Oklahoma, expect mainly snow, although some sleet may mix in early.  Central and southwestern Oklahoma will see the switch to all snow by the middle of the afternoon.  All precipitation will end by midnight.  Temperatures will continue to fall throughout the day, reaching the low-to-mid-20s by mid-afternoon.

Hello south central and southeastern Oklahoma!  We didn't forget you.  You'll start to get your share of wintry precipitation later than the rest of the state.  Expect rain to begin later tonight and last overnight through noon Wednesday.  Temperatures will not start to fall below freezing until the afternoon hours.  When they do, however, conditions will quickly deteriorate.  Expect rain to become freezing rain after noon, then mix with some sleet during the mid-afternoon hours.  By the evening hours, the wintry mix will become all snow and last through midnight as temperatures continue to fall to the low-to-mid-20s.  All precipitation should end by midnight, although a few lingering snow showers may last through early Thursday morning.

Thursday
And that's all folks!  Thursday is set to start a long trend of dry days, with temperatures steadily warming up back to normal over the weekend and then above normal into the beginning of next week.  Mainly sunny skies can be expected on Thursday, with temperatures rising above freezing in the afternoon to begin to melt any snow and ice.

Accumulations

Alright, the part you've been waiting for.  We'll include a comparison with the NAM and GFS models again because (shockingly!) they do not agree.  The contours appear to be especially messy this time, especially on the NAM.  We've also included graphics from the National Weather Service offices in Amarillo, TX (serving the Oklahoma panhandle), Norman, OK (serving central and western Oklahoma), and Tulsa, OK (serving eastern Oklahoma except McCurtain County) with their thoughts on the accumulation amounts.  Again, this is an important time not to focus too much on the actual amounts as the location of the amounts.  All of the state is likely to receive some form of wintry precipitation within the next 24 to 36 hours!

Be sure to check with the National Weather Service forecast office serving your area for the latest as changes to the forecast are made.  Also be sure to check with your preferred media outlet for the latest on school and business closings!  Stay safe, and together, we can survive winter's last stand together!

AC

Sources: NWS Amarillo, NWS Norman, NWS Tulsa, TwisterData, HOOT, Mesonet, CPC, WPC