Risk of Severe Storms Tuesday Through Thursday

Following last week's severe weather, we do not get much of a break before facing another chance for severe thunderstorms tomorrow through Thursday.  The main focus for thunderstorm development and the risk for severe storms shifts each day, with southwestern Oklahoma being the primary focus zone on Tuesday, western/north central Oklahoma on Wednesday, and central/eastern Oklahoma on Thursday.  Please be prepared. 

Tuesday
To start the morning, areas of fog will be possible across much of the state, with a few isolated weak thunderstorms in south central and southeastern Oklahoma after sunrise.  This will be the result of increasing moisture across the region.  The morning storms are not expected to be severe, and the fog will clear by late-morning, yielding partly to mostly sunny skies for the afternoon.  This will induce surface heating and lead to high temperatures reaching the low-to-mid-80s across central and eastern Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon.  Eastern Oklahoma will see highs in the mid-to-upper-70s.  Highs may be even warmer across these regions if high-level clouds are fewer in coverage and less thick.  With the warm surface temperatures, a warm front positioned across southern Oklahoma, a dryline across western Oklahoma, and moderate low-level shear, the environment will be favorable for severe thunderstorm development.  The cap, inhibiting initial thunderstorm development earlier in the day, will weaken by the evening hours.  Thus, storm initiation will first occur in southwestern Oklahoma after 5 pm, where a SLIGHT RISK has been outlined by the Storm Prediction Center.  Storms that fire up will quickly become severe, with large hail to the size of golf balls, and damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph being the main threats.  An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out!  After storms form, they will push eastward but begin to die down after sunset.

Wednesday
A similar pattern is expected on Wednesday.  Mainly sunny skies can be expected in the morning and early-afternoon.  Highs will once again be in the low-to-mid-80s across central and western Oklahoma, and the mid-to-upper-70s across eastern Oklahoma.  Western and north central Oklahoma are outlined in a MARGINAL RISK by the Storm Prediction Center.  While this is a lower risk level than slight, it does not mean storms will not form!  Any developing storms will fire up in western Oklahoma during the evening hours and pose the threats of large hail to the size of golf balls and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph as they quickly become severe.  But, storms will die down after sunset as they push eastward.

Thursday
Moisture will still be in place ahead of a cold front which will surge southward into Oklahoma and intersect with the dryline.  This will, yet again, be the focus for the development of severe thunderstorms.  Large hail and damaging winds will still be the primary threats, with storm initiation occurring across central Oklahoma and spreading eastward.  High temperatures will soar to the upper-80s across southern Oklahoma but will be some 5 to 15 degrees cooler elsewhere.

Friday
After the passage of the cold front on Thursday, Friday will see much cooler highs in the 60s for northern and central Oklahoma and the 70s for southern Oklahoma. Some lingering thunderstorms may be possible across eastern Oklahoma Friday morning.  For the approaching weekend, we will see highs remaining near to slightly below normal, with minimal rain chances.

AC

Sources: NWS, SPC, Mesonet