Pattern changes are fun, aren't they? What seemed like the "winter that wasn't" is now anything but. The arrival of much colder air and moisture will allow for decent chances for snow and sleet across the state Sunday and Monday, and yet again by the end of the week. And by cold air, we mean cold air. Across the panhandle and northwestern Oklahoma, afternoon temperatures today will be in the upper-teens to low-20s, with highs on Monday across all of the state no higher than the 20s. This blog will detail the early winter storm through the end of the weekend and early into the work week, also hinting at what may be on the way by the latter part of the week.
Temperatures Through Tuesday
For most areas across the state with the exception of southeastern Oklahoma, temperatures today will decrease throughout the day. Midnight highs (and 11:59 pm lows) are not going to be out of the question. Southeast Oklahoma may see a slight increase in temperatures during the afternoon but not much. Temperatures later this morning (around 6 am) will range from the mid-to-upper 20s across northern Oklahoma to the low-to-mid-30s across central Oklahoma and the mid-to-upper-30s across southern Oklahoma. By mid-afternoon, temperatures in the 30s will be confined to southeast Oklahoma, while the rest of the state sees temperatures in the 20s. By 11:59 pm Sunday, temperatures no higher than the 20s can be expected across all of the state, with teens likely in the panhandle.
Monday will be very chilly across the state, especially during the morning. Temperatures will be in the teens across northern and central Oklahoma and in the 20s across southern Oklahoma. But, we're in Oklahoma, so that means it's got to be windy. Northeast winds between 15 and 20 mph will lead to wind chills that are in the single digits across much of the state Monday morning. Negative wind chills are possible in the panhandle. Even during the afternoon, wind chills may remain in the single digits and teens as temperatures stay below freezing in the 20s. Please dress warmly if you are going outside on Monday, even if just for a few minutes!
Tuesday morning's lows will again be in the teens and low-20s across the state, with the coldest of temperatures in northwest Oklahoma and the panhandle. Highs are slated to reach above freezing, beginning to melt any wintry precipitation that has accumulated, but not by much. Speaking of wintry precipitation, let's get to that part now.
Wintry Precipitation Through Tuesday
The wintry precipitation is expected to come in two rounds, with each round impacting a different portion of the state. The first round will last from now, once temperatures fall below freezing, until Sunday noon. The panhandle and northwest/north central Oklahoma will be most impacted by this round. The second round will last from Sunday afternoon through Monday. This will impact the remainder of the state (that is, southwest, central/south central, northeast, and southeast Oklahoma).
At this hour, temperatures are just starting to fall below freezing in the panhandle. (Click here to see the latest Mesonet air temperature map.) Until temperatures fall below freezing, rain will be the type of precipitation that is falling, although a few snowflakes may mix in. Accumulations, however, will not be significant until temperatures fall below freezing. Snow will begin in northwestern Oklahoma and the panhandle later tonight when temperatures are cold enough. The snow will be a moderate to heavy snow. A light snow is possible across north central Oklahoma. Some light rain and drizzle may occur across central and southwest Oklahoma later tonight. Eastern Oklahoma will remain dry.
By the morning hours, the snow will persist across northwest/north central Oklahoma and the panhandle through noon. Light rain and drizzle will still be possible across central Oklahoma and southwest Oklahoma. During the afternoon, the rain will transition over to sleet and eventually snow in central and southwest Oklahoma, with some sleet beginning to fall in southeast Oklahoma during this time period. Northeast Oklahoma may see a few snowflakes begin to fall as well, although the wintry precipitation will be least serious in this region.By Sunday evening and Sunday night, snow is expected to fall across western and central Oklahoma. The snow will mainly be a light snow, with some brief heavy periods. South central and southeastern Oklahoma will see a snow and sleet mixture, with some freezing rain possible as well.
On Monday, periods of snow will remain likely through the day. The snow will generally be a light snow, but again, some heavier snow bands may lead to periods of heavier snow. With strong winds, this may lead to areas of drifting or blowing snow that will greatly reduce visibilities. Please take caution if travelling! All precipitation is expected to taper off later Monday night, and by Tuesday morning, all precipitation will end across the state.
Accumulations
Of course, one of the most difficult tasks of winter weather forecasting is predicting the accumulations. As frequently seems to be the case, computer models are not in agreement on how much accumulation of wintry precipitation we may see. However, the areas of greatest accumulation are in general agreement. These are northwest Oklahoma and the panhandle and central Oklahoma, along and south of Interstate 40. Northeast and north central Oklahoma will likely see the least accumulation, if any, of wintry precipitation.
The National Weather Service offices in Norman and Amarillo have provided their latest thoughts of wintry precipitation accumulation. Please note that these amounts will likely change, so please check back with them for the latest updates. You can click on each individual image to enlarge the image.Alerts in Effect
Consult the Mesonet map above for the latest winter weather alerts across the state. Note that areas not yet under a warning or advisory may still see wintry weather! Please be prepared.
More Wintry Weather Later in the Week?
Details are uncertain, but more wintry weather is possible across the state beginning Wednesday night and lasting through the weekend. Temperatures will remain well-below average through the end of the month, which will effectively make February's overall average temperature below average despite the springlike weather we were treated to earlier in the month. In fact, according to the Climate Prediction Center, below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation is expected through at least the first week in March.
AC
Sources: NWS Amarillo, NWS Norman, NWS Tulsa, CPC, Mesonet, HOOT, TwisterData
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