Alright winter, we get it. You were, for whatever reason, not present during most of December and January, so you're trying to make up for lost time and bring a February chill. Anyone else thinking this? After above-average temperature finishes for both December and January across the state, February is coming to a close, and based on the upcoming forecast, we are set to finish with an average temperature that is at least two degrees below normal. The forecast for the foreseeable... Wait, what? Excuse me just one minute. Oh, winter is doing it to us again! The forecast through Monday calls for below-average temperatures. Then on Tuesday, we'll have above-average temperatures likely in the 60s across most of the state. But by Wednesday, temperatures will yet again fall below average. Toss in plenty of moisture, and we've got a tricky forecast for the next few days. Thanks winter!
Friday
Winter precipitation chances return Friday. As cold air from our most recent cold front will have been in place for a little over 24 hours, the mid and lower levels of the troposphere will be below freezing, so the precipitation type will be all snow. As of right now, southwestern and south central Oklahoma are in the zone of highest snow chances and accordingly so, highest snowfall accumulations. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY has been issued across counties in the southwest and south central portions of the state, which lasts from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Friday. This advisory spells out the threat for light to moderate snow to develop across western North Texas and push into these regions throughout the day, bringing anywhere between 1 and 3 inches of snow accumulation. The snow is expected to develop in Texas after 6 AM, will push into
southwestern and south central Oklahoma shortly afterward, and may
impact areas of central and northern Oklahoma later in the day, including the Oklahoma City and Tulsa metro areas. Periods
of snow, some which could be heavy as snow bands set up, will last
through Friday evening until midnight Saturday.
As is and will always be the case, models do not agree on snowfall accumulations. The North American Model (NAM) shows some accumulation of snow across the entire state, with highest amounts near 3 inches concentrated in southwest and south central Oklahoma. Amounts near or just over an inch spread up to the Interstate 40 corridor before becoming less significant farther northward. Meanwhile, the Global Forecast System (GFS) model shows minimal snow accumulations of no more than an inch across southwest and south central Oklahoma, with no accumulations elsewhere. The moral of the story is to not focus as much on the specific amounts as the location of snow. Based on judgement, southwest and south central Oklahoma are the most likely areas to receive snow. The good news is that we're not dealing with a major snowfall event, so accumulations should not the main focal point.But the wintry precipitation will not end here...
Saturday
As winds begin to veer (that is, turn clockwise with height) from the north towards the south and southeast, warmer air will be transported into the region. This will raise temperatures slightly such that Saturday's highs will be right at or just a few degrees above the freezing mark. This will allow for warmer air aloft such that the wintry precipitation will become a wintry mix of snow and sleet by Saturday morning and eventually a mix of sleet and freezing rain or rain by Saturday afternoon across all but far northern Oklahoma, where snow will remain. Accumulations of snow will be minimal across northern Oklahoma at no more than an inch or so, but a thin layer of ice may develop on top of previously-fallen snow across central Oklahoma later Saturday afternoon. Temperatures across southern Oklahoma, particularly the southeast, which reach above the freezing mark will make any falling precipitation a liquid rain that may melt any snow that has fallen and will not create significant travel impacts.
Temperatures which hover right around the freezing mark make winter precipitation forecasting even more difficult. If right at or just below freezing, then ice will form on surfaces. If just above freezing, then no ice will form, and the precipitation will just be a cold rain. Right now, the only area which is slated to see a cold rain Saturday is southeast Oklahoma. All other areas will see either ice (central Oklahoma) or snow (northern Oklahoma).
Sunday
Sunday is a new day, but precipitation chances do not go away. On Sunday morning, temperatures will still be near or below the low-30s across all of the state except extreme southern Oklahoma. Thus, periods of precipitation that continue Sunday morning from Saturday night will be a cold rain across extreme southern Oklahoma but a freezing rain elsewhere. On Sunday afternoon, however, even "warmer" (relatively speaking) air will move into the region and allow high temperatures to rise above freezing across the entire state. Highs may even reach the mid-40s across southern Oklahoma but will be in the upper-30s to low-40s elsewhere. As a result, wintry precipitation will no longer be a concern Sunday afternoon once temperatures rise above freezing. However, temperatures will dip below freezing later Sunday evening across the panhandle and northern Oklahoma, meaning that any precipitation that continues will turn back to freezing rain.
Monday
Does the fun end on Monday? No it does not. As we get further into the future, the forecast is less fine-tuned. However, we expect a similar situation on Monday as on Sunday. Freezing rain will occur in the morning across areas where temperatures are at or below freezing (which will be central and northern Oklahoma and the panhandle), then transition to a liquid rain in the afternoon as temperatures rise to the upper-30s to low-40s. In southern Oklahoma, temperatures will be above freezing all day on Monday, so any precipitation that falls will be rain.
Tuesday
We're even further into the future, but Tuesday brings the chance not only for high temperatures in the 60s across much of the state, but also for showers and thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front. The thunderstorms will remind us that spring and severe weather season is not too far around the corner, assuming winter starts behaving and exits soon.
Now, we've outlined the next five days and mentioned precipitation in each. However, especially with some details into the weekend and early work week not fully outlined, do not expect this to be a constant five days with nonstop precipitation. Chances are that we'll experience periods of precipitation throughout the time period. Weekend precipitation chances at this point are no higher than 50 percent. Thus, we've still got some fine-tuning to do. We'll give you another blog post in a couple of days to let you know how the forecast has evolved.
AC
Sources: NWS Amarillo, NWS Norman, NWS Tulsa, TwisterData, HOOT, Mesonet
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