Severe Weather Possible Over Next Several Days

May was an unusually quiet month for Oklahoma in terms of severe weather, but it looks like June may be picking up on some of the slack. Beginning tomorrow and lasting through the beginning of next week, parts of Oklahoma are at a risk for severe thunderstorms.  The severe threat shifts each day and covers different parts of the state, but as of right now it looks like northern Oklahoma is the primary target zone for this multi-day severe threat.

Wednesday
A SLIGHT RISK has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for the panhandle and northwestern Oklahoma on Wednesday.  Woodward is included in this risk area.  We expect a cold front that is currently pushing towards the south to stall out near the Oklahoma-Kansas border.  This, along with high humidity levels and strong surface heating from generally clear afternoon skies and hot surface temperatures, will allow for the development of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the front in the panhandle and northwestern Oklahoma.  The isolated storms will eventually form larger clusters and increase in coverage as they move towards the south and east.  Therefore, the best rain chances Wednesday evening and Wednesday night will be in north central and northeastern Oklahoma at 40 to 60 percent.  Threats from the storms will be heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding, large hail, and damaging winds.  Minimal rain chances exist elsewhere across the state, with no rain expected across southern Oklahoma as storms will weaken and eventually die out.

Aside from the severe weather, Wednesday afternoon will be a hot one for the state.  Mid-to-upper-90s can be expected across central Oklahoma and the panhandle with upper-90s to low-100s expected across western Oklahoma.  Eastern Oklahoma will see highs reaching the low-to-mid-90s.  Skies will be generally sunny.  However, as mentioned in the above paragraph, beware the humidity levels, which will be high across the entire state.  With these warm highs and high humidity levels, temperatures will feel like they are in the low-to-mid-100s across Oklahoma tomorrow.  Now is the time to remember your heat safety tips!

Thursday
A SLIGHT RISK has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center, including far northwestern Oklahoma, arching over and including north central and northeastern Oklahoma for Thursday.  Woodward and Tulsa are included in this risk area.  The front along the Oklahoma-Kansas border will remain stalled and allow another afternoon and evening with strong to severe thunderstorm development.  As the front lifts north as a warm front later in the evening, rain chances will increase and be highest across far north central and northeastern Oklahoma at 60 to 80 percent.  Still, a 40 to 60 percent for showers and thunderstorms exists across northwestern, north central, and northeastern Oklahoma Thursday evening and overnight, with lesser chances farther south.  Primary threats from the strong to severe thunderstorms will be flooding due to heavy rainfall embedded in some storms, large hail, and damaging winds.

High temperatures Thursday afternoon will soar again to the upper-90s and low-100s across southwestern Oklahoma but be cooler elsewhere, with the coolest spots being the panhandle and far northeast Oklahoma where highs may only reach the 80s.  Widespread 90s will be expected elsewhere, under generally clear skies.  Humidity levels will again be high across the state, leading to another day with heat indices in the 100s.  Again, take caution if you plan to be outside for a prolonged period of time.


Friday - Sunday
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined regions of interest to keep a close eye on for both Friday and Saturday.  Because this is more than three days out, an official risk category cannot be assigned just yet.  However, severe weather is of a possibility.  For Friday, the risk area includes far north central Oklahoma and all of eastern Oklahoma.  Tulsa is included in the risk area.  For Saturday, the risk area extends back west, from west-central to north-central Oklahoma, including northwestern Oklahoma and the eastern part of the panhandle.  Woodward is included in the risk area.  The front contributing to thunderstorm development will continue to lift north as a warm front on Friday, meaning rain chances will be confined only to northern Oklahoma.  By Saturday, the front will dip back towards the south and continue to do so on Saturday evening into Sunday, increasing the rain and thunderstorms chances, especially for central Oklahoma.  Severe weather will again be possible during this time frame, with the best chance for severe thunderstorms Saturday evening and overnight.  Flash flooding, large hail, and damaging winds will all be threats.

Daytime highs on Friday and Saturday will continue to be warmest in southwestern Oklahoma in the upper-90s but cooler elsewhere.  By Sunday, the cold front will have pushed through most of Oklahoma, dramatically dropping afternoon highs behind the front to the low-80s.  Temperatures will slowly rebound for the start of the work week, with thunderstorm chances remaining in the forecast through at least mid-week.

AC

Sources: NWS (forecast graphics, story photo, forecast discussion), SPC, Mesonet