More Severe Storms Expected Tonight, Tomorrow Night

A front that has been stalling out across Oklahoma is responsible for two rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms that occurred Thursday night into Friday morning and then Friday night into Saturday morning.  As this front will hang around for the next couple of days, we will continue to see a similar situation in which a large complex of storms forms across western Oklahoma and pushes eastward.  Threats from such a set-up include damaging wind gusts and large hail.  However, we cannot rule out a few embedded tornadoes in this line of storms.  In addition, some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall exceeding 2 inches.  This will lead to flash flooding and will be extremely dangerous.  We urge you to remember your flood safety tips, especially if you have travel plans tonight.  Turn around, don't drown!

Today & Tonight
The front is currently a cold front across Oklahoma, as seen in the latest surface map, courtesy of Intellicast, and in the latest statewide temperatures, courtesy of the Oklahoma Mesonet.  We notice a large range in temperatures at this hour, with only 60s being reported in the panhandle but 90s being reported in the south-central part of the state.  Highs in the cooler areas should reach the 80s later this afternoon, but highs across southern Oklahoma will be well into the 90s.  The front will again stall out later today, so expect another complex of storms to form later tonight and push eastward across the state.  However, before this, later this afternoon and in the early evening, a few scattered storms may pop up due to the outflow boundary from the storms last night.  These may be strong at times with heavy rain and gusty winds.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a SLIGHT RISK for severe thunderstorms today that includes the entire state.  This means that large metro areas including Oklahoma City and Tulsa are included in this risk area.  Damaging wind gusts and large hail to ping pong balls will be the primary threats, but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially this evening.  While the slight risk extends across the entire state, the primary target areas, or areas most likely to see strong to severe thunderstorms tonight, will be western Oklahoma, central and south central Oklahoma, and southeastern Oklahoma.  Here, a 60 to 80 percent chance of thunderstorms exists.  Elsewhere across the state, expect a 40 to 60 percent chance for thunderstorms tonight.  As the front has pushed slightly towards the south, areas across the southern half of Oklahoma will be more likely to see severe thunderstorms.

Sunday & Sunday Night

The pattern repeats Sunday.  At least a 40 to 60 percent chance for thunderstorms exists across all of the state on Sunday and Sunday night into Monday morning, with higher chances farther towards the east.  Strong thunderstorms developing tonight may continue into Sunday morning and early afternoon.  Then, Sunday night into Monday morning brings yet another round of strong to severe thunderstorms that will march eastward across the state.  Primary threats will again be damaging wind gusts and large hail, with a tornado or two possible and locally heavy rainfall causing flooding.  The Storm Prediction Center's SLIGHT RISK for Sunday spans across central and the southern half of Oklahoma.  Oklahoma City is on the northernmost line of this enhanced risk area.  Any cities north of this are not included in the slight risk but may still see thunderstorms, some strong, Sunday night.  Do not let your guard down.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH is currently in effect for numerous counties across central and northern Oklahoma.  This watch goes into effect through Sunday evening at 7:00pm CDT and has been issued out of the concern for flash flooding that may occur from heavy rainfall that these lines of storms will produce.  Again, keep those flood safety tips handy, and never drive through flooded roadways!

AC

Sources: NWS, SPC, Mesonet, Google Images/weather.com (photo)