ATTENTION: Severe Weather Possible This Week

Springtime is here in Oklahoma!  Temperatures have warmed up, and we are closely monitoring the possibility of severe weather across the state on Tuesday through Thursday as the result of a stalled warm front near southern Oklahoma that will slowly lift northward through central Oklahoma and a dryline that will set up across western Oklahoma and slowly push eastward throughout the week.  With plenty of moisture and some surface heating, enough instability will be provided in the atmosphere to cause severe thunderstorms to fire up.  As this has the potential to be our first significant severe outbreak of the year, we want you to be prepared and have a plan when severe weather strikes. 

Tuesday
Highs across the state on Tuesday will be cooler than today as the result of the passage of a cold front.  In some areas, they will be noticeably cooler; for example, north central Oklahoma will only see highs in the mid-60s tomorrow.  The rest of northern Oklahoma will see highs in the upper-60s.  Highs in the low-70s can be expected across central and southeastern Oklahoma, with highs in the mid-70s across the panhandle and south central Oklahoma.  Southwest Oklahoma will remain the warmest, with Tuesday's highs reaching the upper-70s.

With partly to mostly sunny skies across most of the state, enough surface heating will be provided to allow thunderstorms, which may quickly become severe, to fire up in the afternoon hours.  A strong CAP, the warming of temperatures with height in the atmosphere that inhibits severe thunderstorm development, may prohibit significant severe thunderstorm development on Tuesday, but there is still the possibility of isolated storms as the CAP weakens in the afternoon.  The highest risk for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon will be in areas of southwest and south central Oklahoma.  The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a SLIGHT RISK for severe thunderstorms occurring in this area.  The timing of the initiation of these storms will be between 4pm and 9pm, and hazards will include hail up to the size of tennis balls or baseballs and wind gusts to 70 mph.  Though the tornado threat cannot be ruled out completely, the likelihood of a tornado occurring is very low.  After firing up, the storms will move eastward, so if you live in the lighter-shaded area on the map to the right, you still need to be prepared for strong thunderstorms, even if they are not considered "severe" by definition.  Strong thunderstorms can sill produce hail, damaging wind gusts, heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

TIMING:
4pm to 9pm

THREATS:
Tennis ball- to baseball- sized hail
Wind gusts to 70 mph

Wednesday
A more significant outbreak of severe weather is expected to strike on Wednesday.  The warm front will continue to lift northward, allowing high temperatures to rise to the upper-70s to mid-80s across the state.  A dryline will set up across western Oklahoma.  Areas in far western Oklahoma that are behind the dryline will see elevated fire danger and no storms.  Areas ahead of the dryline will see a few isolated severe thunderstorms develop in the afternoon.  As storms develop ahead of the dryline in western Oklahoma, they will push eastward.  Thus, the greatest risk for significant severe weather to occur is across central Oklahoma, including all of the Oklahoma City metro area.  However, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined all of central, eastern, and even parts of western Oklahoma in a SLIGHT RISK for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday.  All areas in the highlighted risk need to be prepared.

Timing of the initiation of the storms will be between 4pm and 10pm, with hazards including hail up to baseball size, wind gusts to 70 mph, and the chance for isolated tornadoes.  The storms will weaken by sunset, but strong storms are still possible in eastern Oklahoma, with more of a damaging wind and hail threat.

TIMING:
4pm to 10pm

THREATS:
Baseball-sized hail
Wind gusts to 70 mph
Isolated tornadoes

Thursday
The dryline will slowly move eastward on Thursday to central Oklahoma, right along Interstate 35.  Behind the dryline, an elevated fire danger will once again be present with no storm development.  Ahead of the dryline, strong to severe thunderstorms will fire up, again in the late-afternoon and evening hours.  The greatest threat for severe storms will be areas east of Interstate 35.  Hazards may include hail to baseball-size, damaging wind gusts to 70 mph, and isolated tornadoes.

TIMING:
Late-afternoon through evening

THREATS:
Baseball-sized hail
Wind gusts to 70 mph
Isolated tornadoes

Please be prepared, and have a plan for when severe weather strikes.  Spring will "officially" arrive this week in Oklahoma, and we want you to be prepared!

AC

Sources: NWS, Storm Prediction Center, Google Images (photo)