ALERT: Flash Flooding, Severe Weather Possible

It may seem as though we are returning to a spring-like pattern.  A warm front will lift north later this afternoon, with storms firing ahead, or north, of the warm front.  With daytime heating and a moist air mass, also with a limited capping inversion, instability in the atmosphere will be prominent, leading to development of supercell thunderstorms.  These supercells will bring the threats of hail, damaging winds, and, yes, even tornadoes.  After developing, they will push eastward and come together, leading to a significant flash flood threat.  We urge you to be alert this afternoon and evening.  Storms are already firing up across central Oklahoma.

Overall, the concentration of severe weather and flash flooding will be in northern Oklahoma, especially near the Oklahoma-Kansas border.  However, all of the state has the chance of seeing showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, even if they do not turn severe.  The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT RISK for severe thunderstorms in north central and northwest Oklahoma, as well as eastern parts of the panhandle.  Ponca City and Woodward are a couple of the larger population centers in this enhanced risk area.  Additionally, the National Weather Service offices in Norman and Tulsa have issued a FLASH FLOOD WATCH for counties in north central and parts of northeast Oklahoma through Tuesday afternoon.  The chance for severe weather will occur from approximately 4 PM this afternoon to midnight, with threats of hail to golf ball size, damaging wind gusts at or over 60 mph, and isolated weak tornadoes in north central and northwest Oklahoma.  After midnight, the flash flood threats ramps up, primarily for north central and parts of northeast Oklahoma.

For today, the greatest chance for thunderstorms will be in the aforementioned regions.   Rain chances are between 50% and 90%.  For the rest of the state, expect a 30% to 50% chance of thunderstorms this afternoon.  Skies will be partly sunny to mostly cloudy.  Temperatures will generally be in the low-to-mid-90s, but expect the mid-to-upper-80s in far northern Oklahoma.  For tonight, rain chances will be between 60% and 100% across north central and northeast Oklahoma, between 30% and 60% across central Oklahoma, and between 15% and 30% elsewhere.  A heavy rain threat will remain across northern Oklahoma, and even parts of central Oklahoma, such as the Oklahoma City metro area, may see some locally heavy downpours.

On Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms will linger in the morning across central and eastern Oklahoma.  Heavy rain is still possible with some of the storms, especially early.  Across western Oklahoma, drier conditions will ensue, with high temperatures soaring to the upper-90s, with heat indices in the low-100s.  Skies on Tuesday will slowly begin to clear once the rain passes through.  However, even in central and eastern Oklahoma, about a 20% to 30% of thunderstorms remains through Tuesday night.  For the remainder of the week, the west remains hot and dry, central and southeast Oklahoma remain dry with temperatures around normal, and northeast Oklahoma has a slight chance for thunderstorms beginning Friday and lasting through the weekend.

Sources: NWS, SPC, WordPress (photo)