The cold front has passed, and temperatures have cooled behind it. However, the front is expected to stall out near the region, increasing rain chances through the end of the work week. Additionally, high and low temperatures will be well below normal for what we would expect in the middle of July. After this week, a summerlike pattern returns with lots of sunshine and highs back into the middle-90s.
With upper-level lift and plenty of moisture in place, thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of far northwestern Oklahoma overnight and then push towards the southeast. Thunderstorm chances are as high as 60% in northwest Oklahoma, and range from 20 to 40% across southwest and central Oklahoma as the developing thunderstorms will not travel very far before dissipating. Still, some thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall which may lead to flooding. We'll have lows tonight that are generally in the low-to-mid-60s across the state, except for northeast Oklahoma, which will see lows in the mid-to-upper-50s. Low temperatures across the state will be flirting with record lows. Oklahoma City's Will Rogers World Airport forecast low is 61 degrees. The record low is 61 degrees, set in 1891. Tulsa International Airport's forecast low is 58 degrees. The record low is 57 degrees, set in 1967.
Rain chances increase dramatically across the state beginning Wednesday afternoon as a result of the stalled front bringing enough upper level lift and moisture. Rain chances range between 60 and 80 percent across central and western Oklahoma where heavy rainfall is possible. In addition, some strong to severe storms could develop in these regions, producing gusty winds and small hail. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a SLIGHT RISK for severe thunderstorms, which includes the panhandle and western Oklahoma for Wednesday. Towards the east, rain chances will be lower during the day but then increase Wednesday night with virtually all of the state seeing a 60 to 80 percent chance for rain. Heavy rainfall will again be a possibility as will some stronger storms producing gusty winds and small hail. Wednesday's highs will range from the low-to-middle-70s across northern Oklahoma, to the upper-70s and low-80s across central Oklahoma, to the low-to-mid-80s across southern Oklahoma. For Wednesday night into Thursday morning, lows will again be in the low-to-mid-60s, with the upper-50s possible in the panhandle. Record low temperatures are again a possibility in some areas. Oklahoma City's Will Rogers World Airport forecast low is 64 degrees. The record low is 63 degrees, set in 1967. Tulsa's record is 59 set in 1967, but the forecast low is 65 degrees.
Rain chances will remain high on Thursday for central and eastern Oklahoma but diminish towards the west. The heavy rain threat will continue, as well as the threat for some stronger storms, mainly near the Red River. Thursday's high temperatures will not feel like summer! In fact, we're talking about highs reminiscent of what you might see in late October around Halloween! High temperatures will only make it to the mid-to-upper-60s for northeast Oklahoma Thursday afternoon, and to the low-to-mid-70s across the rest of the state (areas in McCurtain County will be the only exception to this, as you can see from the map provided by the Oklahoma Mesonet to the right). Don't confuse the map to the right for low temperatures!
Rain chances will be nonexistent for western Oklahoma Thursday night and will be much lower for central Oklahoma. Eastern Oklahoma may still see higher rain chances through about midnight before the rain finally tapers off. Low temperatures will pretty much be the same as the night before, with the low-to-mid-60s (maybe a few upper-60s in far southern Oklahoma) and the upper-50s across the panhandle. Record lows will yet again be flirted with. Oklahoma City's Will Rogers World Airport forecast low is 64 degrees, with the record low being 62 degrees set in 1911. Tulsa International Airport's forecast low is 62 degrees, with the record being 63 degrees set in 2009.
Rain chances fully end on Friday with partly cloudy skies. Highs will still be well-below normal, however. Temperatures may take until the latter part of the weekend or even until the beginning of next week to fully rebound to near normal. Rainfall totals look to be healthy across a lot of the state, more so for southern Oklahoma, where totals up to 5 or 6 inches are possible. This data is still preliminary. For the official Weather Prediction 7-Day QPF, click here.AC
Sources: NWS, SPC, WPC, Mesonet
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