Dog Days Are Over

You probably know the saying (and maybe even the song), but could it be true?  The past couple of weeks have been filled with all kinds of weather: more extreme heat and strong to severe thunderstorms bringing beneficial, but in some cases flooding, rains to parts of the state, especially northern Oklahoma.  As we look to the forecast for the week ahead, we will continue to see rain chances through next weekend with more severe weather possible early in the week.  However, the biggest story will be a relief from the heat as a relatively strong summer cold front pushes through the state by mid-week.  Therefore, as students prepare to go back to school this week and next, temperatures should be on the cooler side, although rain may be a complicating factor for move-in plans.

The hottest time of the year for Oklahoma ranges from the last couple of weeks in July to the first week in August.  Therefore, historically, temperatures should gradually be getting cooler as we approach the season of fall.  Yes, the autumnal equinox is still over a month away, but some time is needed for adjustment (although I am sure we all know about the dramatic temperature swings that may make summer turn into fall overnight).  As we examine the forecast this week for Oklahoma City, which you can see in the graphic to the right, we will notice high temperatures more reminiscent of mid-September, around the start of the fall season.  Lows, on the other hand, will still remain on the warm side but eventually cool down by Thursday.  These cooler temperatures will be due to a cold front that will advance across the state, so it will not just be Oklahoma City but all of the state that will see highs only in the 80s by Wednesday.

Accompanying the cooler temperatures may be more rain as well, especially in northern Oklahoma.  Through Saturday, at least a 20% chance of rain exists everywhere across the state.  For tonight, the best chance for rain is in northwest Oklahoma, with chances around 50%.  Elsewhere, you can expect rain chances between 20% and 40%. 

On Monday, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a SLIGHT RISK for severe thunderstorms in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas.  A widespread flash flooding situation may be possible again for northern and eastern Oklahoma on Monday, as well as Tuesday, as the slow-moving cold front pushes towards the south.  While these areas welcome the rainfall, too much at one time has become a problem for parts of these areas recently.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH is now in effect for many counties in eastern Oklahoma from Monday morning through Tuesday evening.  Always remember: Turn around, don't drown!

Monday through Tuesday night's rain chances are generally greatest in northeast Oklahoma, ranging from 40% to 70%.  In northwest and central Oklahoma, rain chances are greatest Monday night through Tuesday night at 50% to 60%.  Across southern Oklahoma, mainly south central and southeast Oklahoma only, the best chance for rain will be Tuesday night and Wednesday, with chances of 40% to 60%.  Southeast Oklahoma is forecast to see rain chances no greater than 30% with the passage of the cold front.









Sources: NWS, SPC, jumbowallpaper.com (photo)